The Canadian Journal of Higher Education, Vol. XIII-2, 1983 La revue canadienne d'enseignement supérieur, Vol. XIII-2, 1983 The Changing Profile of Full-Time Faculty at Canadian Universities MAX VON ZUR-MUEHLEN* ABSTRACT Canadian universities underwent a remarkable expansion from the late sixties until the mid-seventies. However, they are entering the eighties on an uncertain note, due to financial restraints imposed by governments, the sudden growth in university enrolment and the shift to professionally oriented programs. These developments have had an impact on the socio-economic characteristics of the 33,000 full-time university teachers: their age, sex, academic rank, salary, citizenship, and qualifications. Especially uncertain is the demand for new faculty in this decade and the implications for the health of Canadian universities. This statistical series documents the changes which are occuring in the demand and supply patterns of doctoral recipients from Canadian universities with the purpose of providing a statistical base from which policy analyses could be developed. RÉSUMÉ Les universités canadiennes ont subi au cours des années 1960/mi-1970 un épanouissement remarquable. Cependant, elles se voient entrer dans une période d'incertitude au début des années 1980 due aux contraintes financières imposées par les gouvernements, l'accroissement soudain de l'inscription au niveau universitaire, et au déplacement vers les programmes de métier. Ces développements ont eu un impact sur les caractéristiques socio-économiques des quelques 33,000 professeurs engagés à plein temps soit l'âge, le sexe, le rang académique, le salaire, la citoyenneté et les qualifications. Comme la demande de professeurs est restreinte dans cette décade, le fonctionnement des universités canadiennes en est affecté. Les différentes statistiques présentent les changements qui surviennent face aux modèles d'offre et de demande chez les détenteurs de doctorats d'universités canadiennes. Cette documentation a pour but de fournir une ligne de conduite qui servira au développement de nouvelles politiques. *Co-Ordinator of Research: Education, Science and Culture Division, Statistics Canada. 28 Max von Zur-Muehlen INTRODUCTION The purpose of the documentation is to provide a statistical overview of full-time faculty at Canadian universities. The data have been derived from the Statistics Canada University Teachers file. No attempt is made to assess the implications of the tables, but they do constitute a base from which such analyses could be developed. During the last 15 years the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of full-time university teachers have changed substantially. These trends assume added significance because of the severe financial restraints imposed by governments and the sudden growth in university enrolment during the early eighties. In the two years, 1981-82 and 1982-83, full-time enrolment grew by more than 10 percent, and the shift in student preferences to professionally oriented programs continued. This article traces, within an historical context, changes in the age, sex, academic rank, salary and citizenship of full-time teachers at Canadian universities. At the same time, an attempt is made to estimate, for this decade, both the replacement demand for full-time university teachers and the supply of doctoral degrees available from Canadian universities. FULL-TIME UNIVERSITY TEACHERS The number of full-time university teachers increased sixfold from 5,000 during the mid-fifties to about 30,000 by 1974-75. Since then this number has levelled off at about 33,000. A basic assumption of this article is that despite shifts in the distribution of full-time faculty from arts and science to professionally oriented disciplines, the total number of teachers will not decline drastically during the next few years. This picture differs from the late sixties and early seventies when, for about ten years, an average of about 2,000 additional full-time teachers were added to the expanding Canadian university system each year. University teaching has long been the preserve of males, and this pattern continues only slightly changed into the 1980s. In 1958-59 only 11% of university teachers were women, a proportion that increased to 13% in 1970-71 and to 15% in 1980-81 (Table 1). In education and fine and applied arts, the proportion of full-time female faculty has been above 20%. Over the years, the percentage of women teaching engineering, and mathematics and physical sciences has remained small (1% and 5%, respectively). Without special efforts or incentives to hire them, women may continue to be underrepresented because of the expected lack of employment opportunities at Canadian universities for the next fifteen years. AGE STRUCTURE This scarcity of positions for new faculty affects another important variable — the age structure of full-time university teachers. In 1974-75, 69% of them were 29 The Changing Profile o f Full-Time Faculty at Canadian Universities TABLE 1 . Full-time University Teachers by Teaching Field and Sex, 1980-81 Teaching Field Education Male (%) Total (.No. and 7.) (80) (20) 24 3,148 Fine and Applied Arts 79 (85) 21 (15) 1,382 4.4 Humanities 82 (83) 18 (17) 5,549 17.7 Social Sciences 86 (91) 14 (9) 8,237 26.3 Agriculture and Biological Sciences 83 (84) 17 (16) 1,983 6.3 Engineering & Applied Sciences 99 (99) 1 (1) 2,395 7.6 Health Sciences 78 (79) 22 (21) 4,523 14.4 Mathematics & Physical Sciences 95 (96) 5 (4) 4,165 13.3 85 (87) 15 (13) 31,382* 100.0 TOTAL 76 Female (7.) 10.0 *Excludes 1,917 unclassified and not reported full-time university teachers. Note: Percentages in brackets show the sex distribution for 1970-71. 35 or older (Table 2). By 1982-83 the proportion had risen to 86%. Meanwhile, the under 30 group dropped from 8% of the total to 3%. The accompanying rise in the median age since the mid-seventies from 39 to 44 indicates the same pattern. The age structure of full-time university teachers varies among disciplines, reflecting the stage of development and demand for each one. In 1980, more than 20% of the teachers in disciplines such as agriculture, forestry, dentistry, and library science were older than 55. In contrast, fewer than 10% in linguistics, business, law, and psychology were 55 or older. TABLE 2 . Age D i s t r i b u t i o n of F u l l - t i m e U n i v e r s i t y T e a c h e r s , 1971-72 t o 1982-83 Age Group 0.9 13.8 23.6 20-24 25-29 30-34 SUB-TOTAL 0.4 7.7 22.7 0.2 0.4 5.8 19.9 0.3 5.2 18.0 15.7 28.7 (20-34) 0.4 6.9 21.4 26.1 23.5 0.2 20.4 3.9 14.1 0.4 3.5 12.6 0.2 3.1 11.0 0.2 2.9 10.1 14.3 35-39 40-44 45-49 20.2 15.6 11.2 21.9 17.3 12.6 22.3 17.5 13.2 22.6 18.1 13.8 23.4 18.3 14.4 23.7 19.2 14.9 23.3 19.9 15.5 22.1 20.8 16.1 20.2 21.5 16.8 18.6 22.0 17.6 SUB-TOTAL ( 3 5 - 3 9 ) 47.0 51.8 53.0 54.5 56.1 57.8 58.7 59.0 58.5 58.2 7.3 4.6 2.8 9.0 5.2 3.2 9.3 5.7 3.3 9.7 6.2 3.5 10.0 6.6 3.8 10.7 7.1 4.0 11.3 7.7 4.1 11.9 8.3 4.3 12.7 9.2 5.3 13.8 9.2 5.6 19.4 20.4 21.8 24.5 27.2 28.6 100.0 25,713 100.0 18,196 50-54 55-59 60-64 SUB-TOTAL TOTAL ( p e r c e n t ) TOTAL NUMBER REPORTED Not 17.4 (50-64) reported O l d e r t h a n 64 GRAND TOTAL 26,675 100.0 29,672 100.0 30,498 100.0 31,280 100.0 31,895 32,357 100.0 32,500 100.0 31,107 99 75 61 138 37 48 58 1,917 200 212 225 230 235 240 245 275 26,973 29,959 30,784 31,648 32,167 32,645 32,803 33,299 100.0 M e d i a n Age * E x c l u d e s Quebec i n s t i t u t i o n s , and f o r 1 9 8 2 - 8 3 , some o t h e r universities. 100.0 18,310 N C k C c 31 The Changing Profile o f Full-Time Faculty at Canadian Universities TABLE 3. Academic year Actual and Projected Academic Rank. Distribution of Full-time University Teachers, 1967-68 to 1990-91 Full professor Associate professor Sub-total Assistant two senior professor ranks Rank below Sub-total assistant two junior professor ranks (Percent) Actual : 1967-68 1968-69 1969-70 1970-71 1971-72 1972-73 1973-74 1974-75 1975-76 1976-77 1977-78 1978-79 1979-80 1980-81 1981-82* 1982-83* 18.5 18.5 18.6 18.8 21.3 21.7 23.2 24.5 25.7 26.7 27.8 28.7 30.2 31.2 33.5 34.8 25.2 26.3 26.8 27.2 29.1 29.9 32.5 34.2 35.6 37.1 37 .8 39.3 39.7 40.0 39.2 38.6 43.7 44.8 45.4 46.0 50.4 51.6 55.7 58.7 61.3 63.8 65.6 68.0 69.9 71.2 72.7 73.4 37.0 37.9 38.0 37.7 37.4 37.2 34.7 33.2 31.3 29.9 28.1 26.2 24.7 23.4 22.2 21.1 19.3 17.3 16.6 16.3 12.2 11.1 9.8 8.1 7.4 6.5 6.3 5.8 5.4 5.4 5.1 5.5 56.3 55.2 54.6 54.0 49.6 48.3 44.5 41.3 38.7 36.4 34.4 32.0 3U.1 28.8 27.3 26.6 35.7 36.6 37.5 38.4 39.3 40.2 41.1 42.0 38.7 38.8 38.9 39.0 39.1 39.2 39.3 39.4 74.4 75.4 76.4 77.4 78.4 79.4 80.4 81.4 20.2 19.3 18.4 17.5 16.6 15.7 14.8 13.9 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.7 25.6 24.6 23.6 22.6 21.6 20.6 19.6 18.6 rojected: 1983-84 1984-85 1985-86 1986-87 1987-88 1988-89 1989-90 1990-91 *Prelinxinary Note: It has been estimated that 0.9 percent of the university cohort will be promoted from associate to full professor, and 0.1 percent from assistant to associate professor. Under these assumptions, the two junior ranks decline proportionately. 32 Max von Zur-Muehlen ACADEMIC RANK DISTRIBUTION Academic rank distribution is related to teachers' age structure. In 1956-57, 52% of the full-time teachers were at the senior ranks (full and associate professor). During the expansionary sixties, this percentage fell to a low of 44% in 1967-68 (Table 3). It then rose gradually to 73% by 1982-83. Conversely, the proportions in the two junior ranks (assistant professor and instructor/lecturer) declined from 56% of the total in 1967-68, to 27% in 1982-83. Of particular note is the decrease of the rank below assistant pryfessor from 19% in 1967-68 to the present 6%, further evidence of reduced hiring of junior faculty over the last fifteen years. If these trends continue, and if one assumes normal progression through the ranks as well as no net additions to full-time academic staff, the proportion at the two senior levels could rise to above 80% within a few years, even with a slower promotion rate. SALARY STRUCTURE The median salary of all full-time university teachers almost quadrupled between 1967-68 and 1982-83 from $11,400 to $43,000 (Table 4). The median for full professors went from $17,100 to $54,900; for assistant professors from $10,200 to $32,000. The financial implications of the rising percentage of teachers who have entered and will enter the senior ranks are obvious. To maintain current levels of remuneration, a larger share of university budgets will have to be allocated to teachers' salaries. But at the same time, demands from other expenditure sectors, such as non-academic salaries, administration, libraries, maintenance, research, and student assistance, are increasing. An important factor in the higher education expenditure pattern is that university education is a labour-intensive service industry whose rate of inflation has been higher than that of the general economy. Growth of the median salary can be compared with the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Using 1967-68 as a base of 100.0, the median salary for all academic ranks increased to 377.3 in 1981-82, while the CPI rose to 303.6 in 1982. To counteract escalating costs, some universities have already started to reduce the number of full-time faculty and/or have decided not to replace those on sabbatical leave. Other institutions are substituting part-time for full-time teachers, at substantial savings. Nevertheless, the cost per student, in constant dollars, is likely to grow. Opportunities for adjustment vary by size of institution; small universities have less flexibility. FOREIGN FACULTY The proportion of newly appointed full-time faculty with Canadian citizenship increased from 59% in 1972-73 to an estimated 75% in 1982-83 (Table 5). However, for a variety of reasons, Canadian universities must in some instances continue to rely on foreign faculty. In certain disciplines for which demand is heavy, TABLE Academic Rank 1967-68 4. Median S a l a r y of F u l l - t i m e U n i v e r s i t y T e a c h e r s by Academic Rank, 1 9 6 7 - 6 8 t o 1969-70 1971-72 1973-74 1975-76 (Current Pull professor 1977-78 1979-80 1982-83 1980-81 1981-82* 1982-83* dollars) 3 <s. 17,100 19,900 22,600 25,200 31,500 36,500 41,500 45,300 49,600 54,900 37,600 41,700 O a Associate professor 13,000 14,000 16,800 18,600 23,100 27,700 31,700 Assistant professor 10,200 U.800 13,300 14,700 18,600 22,000 25 ,000 27 ,400 29 ,300 32 ,000 8,000 9,400 10,500 11,800 14,900 17,800 20,200 21,900 23,600 26,000 11,400 13,300 15,100 17,200 22,400 27,300 31,800 35,200 38,700 43,000 (total) 339.1 377.3 Consumer P r i c e I n d e x (Calendar year) 274.0 H Rank below a s s i s t a n t S a l a r y Index professor N/A U.S. Higher Education P r i c e Index * E x c l u d e s Quebec i n s t i t u t i o n s , and f o r 1 9 8 2 - 8 3 some o t h e r universities. 303.6 N/A 3 TABLE Canada Y e a r of Appointment 5 . C i t i z e n s h i p of Newly A p p o i n t e d F u l l - t i m e U n i v e r s i t y T e a c h e r s , United States United Kingdom Other Commonwealth F r a n c e and Belgium Other Europe 1972-73 to Other Countries 1982-83 Sub-total Not reported Total S 0 3 X < o 3 1972-73 1,094 59.1 332 17.9 165 8.9 69 3.7 56 3.0 66 3.6 68 3.7 1,850 100.0 456 2,306 1973-74 1,108 63.3 296 16.9 134 7.7 63 3.6 31 1.8 67 3.8 51 2.9 1,750 100.0 187 1,937 1974-75 1,280 62.4 361 17.6 177 8.6 64 3.1 43 2.1 57 2.8 69 3.4 2,051 100.0 203 2,254 1975-76 1,293 64.2 325 16.1 144 7.1 78 3.9 40 2.0 62 3.1 72 3.6 2,014 100.0 134 2,148 1976-77 1,399 65.3 319 14.9 154 7.2 87 4.0 44 2.0 57 2.7 84 3.9 2,144 100.0 18 2,162 1977-78 1,422 69.2 273 13.3 148 7.2 56 2.7 41 2.0 48 2.3 67 3.3 2,055 100.0 51 2,106 1978-79 1,743 73.7 250 10.6 153 6.5 63 2.7 37 1.5 56 2.4 62 2.6 2,364 100.0 36 2,400 1979-80 1,380 72.0 209 10.9 134 7.0 64 3.4 22 1.1 49 2.6 58 3.0 1,916 100.0 53 1,969 1980-81* 1,301 72.2 234 13.0 102 5.7 51 2.8 9 0.5 37 2.1 66 3.7 1,800 100.0 63 1,863 1981-82* 1,301 72.2 206 11.4 104 5.8 64 3.6 14 0.8 46 2.6 65 3.6 1,800 100.0 92 1,892 1982-83* 961 75.2 109 8.5 64 5.0 45 3.5 13 1.0 36 2.8 50 3.9 1,278 100.0 44 1,322 14,282 67.9 2,914 13.9 1,479 7.0 704 3.3 350 1.7 581 2.8 712 3.4 21,022 100.0 1,337 22,359 23,943 76.4 3,743 11.9 1,406 4.5 596 1.9 389 1.2 555 1.8 459 1.5 31,091 100.0 291 31,382 11-year total Total faculty 1980-81 * E x c l u d e s Quebec i n s t i t u t i o n s , and f o r 1 9 8 2 - 8 3 some o t h e r universities. N C k 35 The Changing Profile of Full-Time Faculty at Canadian Universities such as management and administrative studies, Canada produces an insufficient number of Ph.D.'s. Moreover, not enough senior persons with strong research experience are available in Canada. In addition, universities are by nature internationally oriented. Therefore, Canadian universities will continue to employ foreign faculty, although to a decreasing rate. The extent to which this has been true in the past is shown in Table 6. Although it is not infallible, the geographic origin of the teachers' first degree can serve as an indicator of their nationality. Overall, in 1980-81, 58% had obtained their first degree in Canada, including those who might have been permanent residents (landed immigrants). The second largest group, 17%, had graduated in the United States, and 10% had earned their first degree in the United Kingdom. In absolute numbers, 12,874 of the 30,861 full-time faculty had obtained their first degree abroad. However, variations among the eight fields were substantial: from a low of 30% in education to a high of 54% in fine and applied arts. Compared with the social sciences and humanities, a disproportionately large number in the natural and physical sciences had earned their first degree in countries other than Canada, the United States or the United Kingdom. At the discipline level, in some social sciences such as archaeology and anthropology, American degrees outnumbered Canadian. This contrasts with most of the applied disciplines, in which better than two-thirds of the teachers had graduated from Canadian universities. DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF FACULTY An obvious consequence of the age structure (72% are between 35 and 54) is that few university teaching jobs will open up in the near future. During the period 1983 to 1991, just 13% of full-time teachers will reach the normal retirement age of 65 (Table 7). This means that retirement will free about 4,200 fulltime positions. An estimated 1,500 more will be available on account of mortality. Consequently, retirement and mortality will create around 5,700 openings: an average of about 634 a year. But this may be an overestimation. Elimination of the mandatory retirement age in provinces such as New Brunswick, Quebec and Manitoba has reduced the retirement rate substantially, partly because of the unfavourable economic climate which erodes pensions. Moreover, possible financial savings and anticipation of an absolute decline in full-time enrolment might cause universities to leave these positions vacant, to replace them with temporary (term) appointments or to make greater use of part-time teachers. Such measures would further restrict employment opportunities. Besides retirement and mortality rates, a third variable affecting the need for replacement is mobility. Although no systematic attempt has been made in Canada to find out what happens to faculty who resign, there is evidence that mobility between universities and other employment sectors (and vice versa) is declining, not a surprising phenomenon in a strained labour market. Therefore, zero net mobility has been assumed. TABLE 6. Geographic Area of First Degree of Full-time University Teachers by Teaching Field, 1980-81 .Canada United States United Kingdom Other Commonwealth France and Belgium Other Europe Other Total 2 p x N C Education 2,179 (70.2) 551 (17.7) 160 (5. .1) 67 (2.2) 50 (1.6) 49 (1.6) 49 (1.6) 3,105 (100.0) Fine and Applied Arts 555 (45.7) 440 (36.3) 105 (8. .7) 11 (0.9) 20 (1.6) 59 (4.9) 23 (1.9) 1,213 (100.0) Humanities 2,903 (52.9) 1,236 (22.5) 629 ( 1 1 . .5) 76 (1.4) 226 (4.1) 290 (5.3) 123 (2.3) 5,483 (100.0) Social Sciences 4,673 (57.3) 1,764 (21.6) 633 .7) (7. 293 (3.6) 251 (3.1) 240 (2.9) 307 (3.8) 8,161 (100.0) 10,310 (57.4) 3,991 (22.2) 1,527 ( 8 .. 5 ) 447 (2.5) 547 (3.0) 638 (3.6) 502 (2.8) 17,962 (100.0) Agriculture & Biological Sciences 1,155 (58.6) 331 (16.8) 243 (12.3) 92 (4.7) 21 (1.1) 69 (3.5) 59 (3.0) 1,970 (100.0) Engineering and Applied Sciences 1,373 (57.9) 159 (6.7) 296 (12.5) 134 (5.7) 64 (2.7) 170 (7.2) 174 (7.3) 2,370 (100.0) Health Sciences 2,971 (66.9) 302 (6.8) 539 (12.1) 173 (3.9) 46 (1.0) 211 (4.8) 200 (4.5) 4,442 (100.0) Mathematics and Physical Sciences 2,178 (52.9) 516 (12.5) 602 (14.6) 278 (6.8) 84 (2.1) 256 (6.2) 203 (4.9) 4,117 (100.0) SUB-TOTAL - 7,677 (59.5) 1,308 (10.1) 1,680 (13.0) 677 (5.3) 215 (1.7) 706 (5.5) 636 (4.9) 12,899 (100.0) 17,987 (58.3) 5,299 (17.2) 3,207 (10.4) 1,124 (3.6) 762 (2.5) 1,138 (3.7) 30,861 (100.0) SUB-TOTAL - HUMAN SCIENCES SCIENCES TOTAL 1,344 (4.3) k e C S s; c T 3 37 The Changing Profile o f Full-Time Faculty at Canadian Universities TABLE 7 . Projected Replacement Positions Available for Full-time University Teachers, 1983 to 1991 Retirements (No.) Retirement rate (X) Mortality (%) Mortality Total Replacement rate replacement rate (%) (No.) U) 1983 265 0.8 165 0.5 430 1.3 1984 309 0.9 165 0.5 474 1.4 1985 388 1.2 165 0.5 553 1.7 1986 445 1.4 165 0.5 610 1.9 1987 474 1.4 165 0.5 639 1.9 1988 493 1.5 165 0.5 658 2.0 1989 555 1.7 165 0.5 720 2.2 1990 597 1.8 165 0.5 762 2.3 1991 650 1.9 165 0.5 815 2.4 4,176 12.6 1,485 4.5 5,661 17.1 Nine-year total Note: This projection is based on a stock figure of 32,950 full-time university teachers in 1980-81 and assumes zero net mobility. The mortality rate is an approximation. The stock figure is held constant for the projection period, an assumption that must be qualified if universities, for financial and other reasons, reduce the total number of full-time faculty over the next nine years. Table 8. Projected Supply of Doctoral Degrees from Canadian Universities, 1983 to 1987 Full-time and part-time doctoral students 1982-83P Foreign students 1,731 194 78 48 126 Classics English French Other Languages History Library Science Linguistics Media Studies Philosophy Religious Studies SUB-TOTAL: HUMANITIES Field of Study Less foreign students Withdrawal rate in percentage Balance Length of study in years Degrees granted each year 1983 to 1987 ,537 55 692 173 192 5 8 13 73 40 113 50 50 50 37 20 57 5 5 5 7 4 11 52 595 218 323 444 22 164 22 478 270 2,588 12 106 28 68 47 2 29 3 95 49 439 40 489 190 255 397 20 135 19 383 221 2 ,149 30 50 50 50 45 50 50 50 50 50 30 to 50 28 245 95 128 218 10 68 10 192 111 1,105 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 7 61 24 26 54 3 17 2 38 22 254 Anthropology and Archaeology Management Area Studies Economics Geography Law Man and Environmental Studies Political Science Psychology Social Work Sociology SUB-TOTAL: SOCIAL SCIENCES 272 213 174 496 232 67 39 431 1,210 64 513 3,711 42 33 79 204 74 18 7 111 138 3 100 809 230 180 95 292 158 49 32 320 1 , ,072 61 413 2 ,902 50 50 50 50 40 50 55 50 50 50 50 50 115 90 48 146 95 25 14 160 536 30 206 1,465 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 29 22 12 3b 24 6 4 40 134 8 52 367 TOTAL HUMAN SCIENCES 8,156 1,455 ,701 6, 40 to 55 3,319 4 to 5 805 Education Music Fine and Performing Arts SUB-TOTAL: FINE AND APPLIED ARTS 1, 43 Agriculture Biochemistry Biology Botany Household Science Veterinary Science Zoology SUB-TOTAL: AGRICULTURE AND BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES 340 140 502 73 29 36 224 1,344 1U9 33 110 19 5 7 37 320 231 107 392 54 24 29 187 1,024 25 25 40 40 50 30 40 25 to 50 173 80 235 32 12 20 75 627 3 5 19 157 Chemical Engineering Civil Engineering Electrical Engineering Mechanical Engineering Other Engineering SUB—TOTAL: ENGINEERING Forestry 205 250 325 179 332 1,291 1,359 106 131 151 84 141 613 28 641 99 119 174 95 191 678 40 718 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 59 71 104 57 116 407 24 431 15 18 26 14 29 102 6 108 Dentistry Basic Medical Sciences Pharmacy Other Health Sciences SUB-TOTAL: HEALTH SCIENCES Computer Science Mathematics Chemistry Geology Physics Other Physical Sciences SUB-TOTAL: MATHEMATICS AND PHYSICAL SCIENCES 13 533 49 396 991 5 82 23 53 163 4 248 14 189 455 1 451 26 343 828 45 45 45 45 45 62 4 47 114 181 317 745 288 480 95 2,106 61 133 278 106 101 39 718 184 467 182 379 56 1,388 30 30 30 45 35 35 35 84 129 327 100 246 39 902 21 32 82 25 62 10 232 TOTAL SCIENCES 5,800 1,842 3,958 25 to 45 2,415 3 to 4 611 43 10 33 50 17 3 5 13,999 3,307 10,692 25 to 55 5,751 3 to 5 1,421 TOTAL: ENGINEERING AND APPLIED SCIENCES Not Specified GRAND TOTAL 68 120 20 59 8 Note: The rationale and methodology for this simulation exercise has been outlined by the author in the following publications: "The Ph.D. Dilemma in Canada: A Case Study", Canadian Higher Education in the Seventies, Economic Council of Canada, May 1972, pp. 75-131; "The Ph.D. Dilemma in Canada Revisited", The Canadian Journal of Higher Education, February 1978, pp. 49-92. O 3" •n H 3 C 3 40 Max von Zur-Muehlen As already indicated, in most disciplines, the number of retirements over the next five years will be small: 1,881 full-time faculty members will reach the normal retirement age of 65 between 1983 and 1987. This figure is much lower than the anticipated supply of Ph.D. graduates during the same five years — well over 7,000 (Table 8). Furthermore, the chances of new graduates securing a university teaching position may be even slimmer than these numbers suggest, as not everyone who reaches 65 retires. It should also be remembered that all university appointments do not necessarily go to Ph.D.-holders; in some cases, foreign professors and persons from other employment sectors will be hired as well as returning Canadians with foreign earned doctorates. CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONS Changes in enrolment patterns, age structure, rank distribution and salary level of full-time faculty are affecting Canadian universities. This coincides with a severe curtailment of government spending. Enrolment in recent years has grown more rapidly than full-time faculty, resulting in an increase in the student/teacher ratio, and a possible decline in the quality of university education and research. High student/teacher ratios are particularly evident in professional disciplines. For example, the ratio in business was 31.7 to one, 18.7 in engineering, and 18.3 in law, compared with 14.2 for all disciplines. Slow growth of full-time faculty has meant a decrease in employment opportunities for recent Ph.D. graduates (especially in the arts and sciences) and a general aging of the faculty. The impact of this aging process on university teaching and research needs to be assessed. A further consequence of the hiring cutback has been a substantial decline in mobility and fewer foreign faculty. It is anticipated that these trends will persist in the next few years. The median salary of university professors has risen more rapidly than the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and is likely to continue to do so. Salary structure reflects rank distribution. In 1982-83, 73% of the full-time university teachers will be either full or associate professors. Within a few years, four out of five may be in this senior category. Under the best of circumstances, for the next few years, the annual replacement demand for full-time university teachers will be at around 500, whereas the supply of new doctoral degree-holders alone will be two or three times as high. This potential imbalance remains a cause for concern.