The Ph.D. Dilemma in Canada Revisited MAX VON ZUR-MUEHLEN, Ph.D.** ABSTRACT Growth of doctoral studies at Canadian universities in the last two decades has resulted in the more than 1,000 programs that are now offered. Not surprisingly, the output of Ph.D. graduates has increased 6 fold since the early sixties. But during the seventies, an imbalance between the rising supply of Ph.D. 's and the declining demand for them, particularly in higher education, became apparent. This paper traces historical trends in the employment of Canada's Ph.D. holders, and looks at their prospects for the future. Traditionally, about 65% of doctoral graduates have entered educational occupations. Today, because of the youthful age structure, there are few retirements or deaths, and hence, the annual replacement demand is for only about 500 Ph.D. 's. But Canadian universities now confer around 2,000 doctorates each year (including returning Canadians from abroad). Moreover, this imbalance is apt to persist. On the basis of the current enrolment of 13,000, the Ph.D. supply has been projected from 1977-78 to 1981-82 for 45 disciplines. Relating these supply estimates to the likely demand for university teachers reveals a potential surplus in almost every discipline. A cycle of shortage and surplus appears to have developed in some fields. These simulations have been derived from assumptions, which are outlined in two appendices and 26 supporting tables. In addition, this paper also examines other features of the Ph.D. situation in Canada: a history of the growth of graduate education; variations in the ratio of Ph.D. enrolment to graduates in different disciplines; support programs for doctoral students, and the immigration of university teachers. The information provides an overview of the many dimensions of the Ph.D. issue. RESUME Le Dilemme du doctorat au Canada, revu — La croissance de l'intérêt pour les études au doctorat a été telle au cours des deux dernières décennies, que plus de 1,000 programmes sont présentement offerts dans les universités canadiennes. D'où la constatation que le nombre de détenteurs d'un doctorat soit six fois plus grand depuis les années 60. Toutefois, au cours des années 70, un déséquilibre s'est manifesté, surtout dans le domaine de l'enseignement supérieur, entre le nombre croissant T h e views expressed by the a u t h o r are his o w n and n o t necessarily those of Statistics Canada. Institutional and Public F i n a n c e Statistics Branch, Statistics Canada. 50 Max V o n Zur-Muehlen de diplômés d'un doctorat d'une part et la demande d'inscription à ce même niveau d'autre part. La présente étude veut tout à la fois tracer les tendances historiques en regard de l'utilisation des diplômés d'un doctorat des universités canadiennes et jeter un regard sur les perspectives d'avenir. Traditionnellement, environ 65% des diplômés d'un doctorat s'orientaient vers des carrières dites pédagogiques. A l'heure actuelle, à cause du jeune âge du personnel enseignant, on y compte peu de retraités ou de gens qui décèdent, ce qui explique des demandes annuelles de seulement 500 nouveaux diplômés d'un doctorat pour remplir les postes existants. Toutefois, les universités canadiennes décernent actuellement environ 2,000 doctorats par an (y compris les canadiens qui reviennent d'un stage dans un autre pays). D'ailleurs, il est à prévoir que ce déséquilibre aura tendance à se perpétuer. En se basant sur les 13,000 inscriptions actuelles à des programmes de doctorat, une projection a été faite de l'offre des candidats en regard des années 1977- 78 à 1981-82, pour 45 disciplines. En juxtaposant ces projections de l'offre par rapport à la demande probable pour des enseignants universitaires, un surplus se révèle dans presque toutes les disciplines. Un cycle de pénurie et de surplus paraît s'être développé dans certaines disciplines. Ces simulations proviennent des hypothèses contenues dans deux appendices et vingt-six tableaux ciannexés. De plus, cette étude se penche également sur d'autres aspects de la situation des doctorats au Canada: une histoire de la croissance de l'enseignement supérieur; des écarts dans le rapport des inscriptions au doctorat dans de différentes disciplines; les programmes de soutien pour des candidats au doctorat et l'immigration d'enseignants universitaires. Ces information fournissent un aperçu général des dimensions multiples de l'utilité du doctorat au Canada. INTRODUCTION By 1971, the imbalance between the growing supply of Ph.D. graduates and the declining demand for them, particularly in the university sector, had become apparent. The Economic Council explored this issue in a report published in Canadian Higher Education in the Seventies in 1972. 1 The information available then was limited, but now many of the questions raised can be answered more authoritatively on the basis of recent data. The purpose of this report is to provide that data, and at the same time, discuss some of the issues. This report is organized into four sections and two appendices. The first section presents a statistical outline of the Ph.D. situation in Canada: the Ph.D. population, (e.g. employment sector, occupation, immigration status and university teachers' characteristics), degrees granted, and employment trends. The second investigates the enrolment pattern of full-time and part-time doctoral students by field of study and legal residence status. It also gives, on a provincial basis, the number of Canada Student Loan Plan recipients, and the number of Canada Council Doctoral Fellows, by discipline. 1 " T h e Ph.D. Dilemma in Canada: A Case S t u d y " . This study also provided a selected bibliography on the subject in t h e Canadian c o n t e x t , p. 128-131. 51 T h e Ph.D. Dilemma in Canada Revisited The third section deals with the structure of doctoral programs at Canadian universities, particularly the increasing number of graduate programs, and discusses the growth pattern for selected disciplines. In addition, Ph.D. enrolment is related to the number of degrees granted by discipline. The last section focuses on the anticipated supply and demand of Ph.Ds in the university sector f r o m 1977-78 to 1981-82. THE PH.D. SITUATION: BASIC STATISTICS Employment The Highly Qualified Manpower Survey of 1973 presented, for the first time, an excellent overview of how Canada's Ph.D. population was employed. 2 By 1973, according to this survey, 27,410 residents of Canada had earned a doctorate. Of those who were part of the labour force, 64.8% were working in education (Table 1). The various levels of government employed 14.7% (11.7% in the federal government alone), and the industrial sector accounted for about 13.5%. An occupational breakdown reflects this distribution of Ph.Ds among employment sectors. About half (50.8%) were university teachers, while other educational institutions employed 4.4% (Table 2). In addition, 4.7% were educational administrators. Chemists, geologists, engineers, and similar scientific occupations constituted a large component (20.9%). .Another group (7.8%) functioned as administrators and managers in both government and industry. Replacement A unique characteristic of Canada's Ph.D. population is its relative youth. In the educational sector, two-thirds are younger than 44, and their average age has been estimated at 40. This means that for the next ten to fifteen years attrition due to retirement and death will be low. The current annual attrition rate, about 1.3%, opens about 500 replacement positions for Ph.Ds in all sectors of employment each year. However, around 2,000 Ph.Ds become available for employment annually, and demand in education and government is not expanding. The imbalance is apparent. But the present age structure suggests a substantial replacement demand for Ph.Ds in 15 years, particularly in education. Since the average time to complete a Ph.D. is five years from the masters or equivalent level, the question of supply needs to be explored before the late eighties. Citizenship In the past, Canada has relied heavily on immigrants for highly qualified manpower: 57.6% of the 1973 Ph.D. population were immigrants. In addition, a large number of Canadians have obtained their degrees abroad. The 1973 survey showed that 31.9% of the Ph.D. population, including Canadian citizens and landed immigrants, completed their doctoral studies in the United States, and 22.9% in Europe (Table 3). 2 Highlights of this i n f o r m a t i o n have been discussed in a separate article " P r o f i l e of Ph.Ds in C a n a d a " , Canadian Statistical Review (July 1976). 52 Max Von Zur-Muehlcn TABLE 1 EMPLOYMENT OF PH.DS BY INDUSTRIAL SECTOR AND BY AGE, 1973 YOUNGER THAN 34 % INDUSTRIAL SECTOR 34 - 44 % OLDER THAN 44 J. NUMBER PERCENT* Primary industries (e.g., agriculture, mining) 19 6 37 1 43 3 485 ( 1.8) Manufacturing 26 7 36 4 36 4 1,290 ( 4.9) Service industries (e.g., transportation, trade, finance) 24 7 27 2 46 9 395 ( 1.5) Education and related 24 1 43 0 33 0 17,120 Health and Welfare Services 21 5 39 0 39 5 1,000 ( 3.8) 1 6 18 5 79 8 620 ( 2.3) Other Services (e.g, community, business, personal) 18 2 20 5 56 8 225 ( 0.8) Business Management 26 0 35 4 39 0 1,290 ( 4.9) Federal Administration 20 5 37 3 42 0 3,090 ( 11.7) Provincial Administration 24 5 34 7 42 2 735 ( 2.8) Municipal Administration 30 0 40 0 40 0 50 ( 0.2) Industry as unspecified or undefined 41 7 29 2 29 2 120 ( 0.4) TOTAL 23 1 39 1 37 8 26,405 Religious Organizations * Percentage Source: in brackets Statistics provide breakdown Canada,unpublished by industrial ( 64.8) (100.0) sector. data. Examination of the country of birth of foreign-born Ph.Ds reveals that 25.0% came from the United Kingdom, 24.5% from the United States and a similar proportion from other European countries combined (Table 4). Almost 45% of them entered Canada between 1966 and June 1971. 3 University Teachers Historically, more than half of the Ph.Ds have been employed as university teachers. During the last 20 years, Canadian universities underwent remarkable growth. The number 3 T h e mailing list for t h e Highly Q u a l i f i e d M a n p o w e r Survey of 1 9 7 3 was derived f r o m t h e 1 9 7 1 Census. C o n s e q u e n t l y , n o o n e w i t h a P h . D . w h o i m m i g r a t e d t o C a n a d a b e t w e e n J u n e 1 9 7 1 a n d fall of 1 9 7 3 w a s i n c l u d e d . 53 T h e P h . D . D i l e m m a in C a n a d a Revisited TABLE 2 SELECTED OCCUPATIONS OF PH.DS BY SEX, 1973 SELECTED OCCUPATION Government Administrators General Managers and Senior Officers Administrators in Teaching Other Managers and Administrators Chemists Geologists Agriculturists and Related Other Natural Scientists Engineers, Architects, System Analysts Economists Psychologists Judges and Lawyers Other Social Scientists Ministers of Religion University Teachers Elementary and Secondary Teachers Post-Secondary Non-University Teachers Other Teachers and Related Physicians and Surgeons Dentists Pharmacists Other Health Occupations Writers, Editors and Related Occupations Clerical, and Service Military and Policy Officers Other Occupations Not Stated TOTAL MALE 455 580 1,175 915 1,490 605 570 1,150 1,490 185 295 115 200 570 12,155 260 410 225 320 20 50 50 140 105 160 205 105 PER CENT 94 100 94 94 94 99 100 94 96 94 80 92 78 96 90 82 82 67 95 100 76 90 77 95 97 97 84 8 0 4 3 6 2 0 3 1 9 8 0 4 6 5 5 0 2 5 0 9 9 8 5 0 6 0 23,985 FEMALE 20 — 65 55 90 10 — 75 60 5 65 10 60 20 1,270 55 90 110 10 — 10 5 35 10 5 10 20 2,165 PERCENT TOTAL PERCENT* 2 0 6 7 4 8 0 7 9 1 2 0 6 0 5 5 0 8 5 0 1 1 2 5 0 4 0 480 580 1,245 970 1,575 6.10 570 1,220 1,550 195 365 125 255 590 13,425 315 500 335 335 25 65 55 180 110 165 210 125 ( 1.8) ( 2.2) ( 4.7) ( 3.8) ( 6.0) ( 2.3) ( 2.1) ( 4.6) ( 5.9) ( 0.7) ( 1.4) ( 0.5) ( 1.0) ( 2.2) ( 50.8) ( 1-2) ( 1.9) ( 1.3) ( 1-3) ( 0.1) ( 0.2) ( 0.2) ( 0.7) ( 0.4) ( 0.6) ( 0.8) ( 0.5) 9 0 26,405 (100.0) 5 0 5 5 5 0 0 5 3 5 19 8 21 0 9 17 18 32 4 0 23 9 22 4 3 2 16 * Percentage in brackets provide breakdown by occupation. Source: Statistics Canada, unpublished data. of full-time teachers increased sixfold, f r o m less than 5,000 in 1956-57 to almost 30,000 in 1974-75 (Table 5). The most spectacular expansion took place in the social sciences, which grew from 931 to 9,863. In comparison, the physical and applied sciences increased from 1,491 to 6,637. Between 1963-64 and 1972-73 the average annual increase in the number of university teachers was about 2,000, excluding the few hundred replacement positions that were filled. This meant that between 2,200 and 2,400 full-time teachers were hired each year, and approximately half had a Ph.D. Many of them were landed immigrants. According t o immigration statistics, 17,713 immigrants whose intended occupation was university teaching were admitted to Canada between 1962 and 1974, 4 Most came from the United 4 T h i s r e f e r s to i n t e n t i o n of i m m i g r a n t s , n o t p o s i t i o n s o b t a i n e d . T h e r e is a n o t h e r g r o u p of i m m i g r a n t s w h o s e original i n t e n d e d o c c u p a t i o n w a s n o t u n i v e r s i t y t e a c h i n g , b u t w h o w e r e e v e n t u a l l y e m p l o y e d b y universities. 54 Max V o n Zur-Muehlen TABLE 3 GEOGRAPHIC ORIGIN OF P H . D S , NUMBERS B Y COUNTRY 1973 NUMBERS B Y REGION PERCENT Canada 295 3,295 5,280 370 355 1,100 900 Atlantic Provinces Quebec Ontari o Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta B r i t i s h Columbia ( 2.5) (28.4) (45.5) ( 3.2) ( 3.1) (9.5) ( 7.8) 11 , 5 9 5 42.4 8,730 31 . 9 6,260 22.9 Zealand 260 0.9 (primarily India) 370 1.4 Countries (e.g., Latin 160 0.6 27,410 100.0 TOTAL, CANADA United (100.0) States Europe Czechoslovakia France Germany I t a l y S Holy See Swi t z e r l a n d U n i t e d Kingdom Others TOTAL, Australia Asia Other ( 3.1) (13.0) ( 3.4) ( 6.9) ( 2.7) (61.0) ( 9.8) EUROPE & New TOTAL, ALL Percentage 195 815 215 430 170 3,820 615 in Africa, America] COUNTRIES brackets provides regional breakdowns. States (46.3%) and Great Britain (19.3%) (Table 6). Between 1972 and 1974, more than 1,200 immigrants whose intended occupation was university teaching entered the country each year, although the number of available positions had drastically declined. Unfortunately, information about the Ph.D. qualifications of landed immigrants who plan to teach at a university is not available. Table 7 shows characteristics such as average age and salary, proportion of females, and citizenship of university teachers in 1973-74. Faculties have been grouped into 47 disciplines under eight teaching fields. As an illustration, there were 1,465 (5.1%) faculty members teaching English; 1,229 (4.3%) 55 The Ph.D. Dilemma in Canada Revisited TABLE 4 FOREIGN BORN PH.DS BY COUNTRY OF BIRTH AND PERIOD OF IMMIGRATION, 1 9 7 3 BEFORE 1 9 5 5 NO. % U n i t e d Kingdom Germany S o v i e t Union Poland France Netherlands Hungary Czechoslavakia Yugoslavia Austria Belgium Greece Spain & Portugal Others: Europe United S t a t e s India China Japan Egypt & Libya Other c o u n t r i e s 1,040 225 335 225 85 145 85 70 60 70 50 25 10 145 435 60 80 25 10 60 29 46 77 63 27 56 29 21 57 66 34 25 10 33 12 5 16 18 4 10 TOTAL, ALL COUNTRIES 3,475 1961-65 1956-60 NO. % 595 60 30 40 20 60 130 5 5 10 15 45 15 55 220 95 50 17 12 7 11 6 23 45 1 4 9 10 45 15 12 6 9 10 0 22 12 NO. 1966-JUNE 1971 % NO. TOTAL NUMBER % PERCENT* 3,480 485 430 355 315 255 285 325 105 105 145 100 100 440 3,415 1 ,050 480 135 220 580 (25.0) (3.5) (3.1) (2.6) (2.9) (1.8) (2.0) (2.3) (0.8) (0.8) (1.0) (0.7) (0.7) (3.2) (24.5) (7.5) (3.4) (1.0) (1.6) (4.2) EUROPE 9 4 9 4 0 9 8 5 1 7 5 0 0 0 7 7 7 5 5 3 in b r a c k e t s 50 75 1,780 25 0 •Percent -- 1 4 0 3 3 5 6 5 8 5 3 0 0 5 4 0 4 0 7 9 show g e o g r a p h i c 555 70 15 20 75 45. 20 10 15 10 45 -- 25 75 600 250 125 25 60 140 15 14 3 5 23 17 7 3 14 9 31 0 25 17 17 23 26 18 27 24 0 4 5 6 8 6 0 1 3 5 0 0 0 0 6 8 0 5 3 1 36 27 11 19 39 5 19 69 19 14 24 25 50 35 61 62 44 59 47 50 9 8 6 7 7 9 3 2 0 3 1 0 0 2 8 4 8 3 7 9 6,230 2,430 12 8 1 ,285 135 50 70 125 15 55 225 20 15 35 25 50 155 2,110 665 215 80 105 295 17 5 13,915 44 8 distribution psychology and 1,162 (3.5%) chemistry. Two-thirds were Canadian citizens, with some variations among disciplines; 13% were female, but women were concentrated in fine arts, modern languages, literature, education, social work, and household sciences. The proportion who held a doctorate was 56.8% for all disciplines, with a high of 82.0% in the physical sciences. Federal Government Employees Traditionally, the federal government has also been a major employer of doctoral graduates. According to the Highly Qualified Manpower Survey, 3,090 Ph.Ds (11%) worked for the government in 1973. From Public Service Commission data it was possible to ascertain the length of employment and the discipline of study of the 2,293 hired under the Public Service Employment Act (Table 8). 5 5 Since e m p l o y e e s of a n u m b e r of federal agencies such as t h e National Research Council, the E c o n o m i c Council and crown c o r p o r a t i o n s were n o t part of t h e " D a t a S t r e a m " of the Commission, this figure u n d e r e s t i m a t e s the actual n u m b e r of Ph.Ds in the public service. Moreover, some Ph.D.- holders in the government sector might n o t have identified themselves as such. Table 5 F u l l Time U n i v e r s i t y T e a c h e r s by F i e l d of S t u d y , 1956-57 t o 1974-75 Social Sciences 1956 • 1957 1957-•1958* 1958-•1959 Increase over previous year 931 1,028 1,126 Humanities Increase over previous year 1,181 99 100 1,380 1,276 I960-• 1961 1,427 1,524 1,630 2,210 3,921 2,087 397 2,484 1964. 196 5* 2,671 1965. 1966 3,133 461 5,616 2,945 461 462 3,406 3,904 1967- 1968 4,676 588 7,898 3,994 772 589 4,583 1968- 1969 5,424 1909- 1970 6,430 777 5,850 7,528 1971- 1972 8,598 14,154 6,626 346 6,972 411 1973- 1974 1974- 1975** 9/257 9,863 - 90 341 5,834 726 17,031 5,661 5,493 321 120 189 208 6,042 * Estimated. * * I n c l u d e s f o r t h e f i r s t time Ryerson P o l y t e c h n i c a l I n s t i t u t e w i t h 623 f a c u l t y members, a c c o u n t i n g f o r o v e r 5OX of t h e Source: S t a t i s t i c s Canada, u n p u b l i s h e d d a t a . 11,393 244 11,886 7 6,400 12,234 237 6,637 increase. 2,307 14,392 950 2,311 16,703 2,161 18,864 1,192 2,975 21,839 10,450 6,393 1,482 12,085 948 891 488 249 10,603 559 8,367 9,559 6,149 1,235 1,478 923 701 455 5,244 16,305 7,048 7,168 4,789 414 7,444 5,472 702 1,874 4,987 6,494 4,771 7,890 9,125 556 448 491 4,087 15,984 7,138 606 3,596 1,783 718 462 4,431 480 4,323 718 7,172 305 5,546 3,843 566 306 480 475 1,416 166 336 470 3,121 15,570 248 8,846 12,280 3,027 3,363 2,651 5,888 6,454 3,969 336 2,765 24,604 943 2,359 26,963 493 907 27,870 348 669 28,539 445 12,679 177 563 270 268 468 1,238 776 1,070 1972- 1973 1,359 10,497 5,073 1.006 223 1,361 490 1,098 1970- 1971 1,960 2,183 9,259 748 2,423 220 5,325 3,664 2,691 175 5,148 3,358 191 Increase over previous year 4,973 21 3,088 -191 194 21 - Grand Total 269 201 2,232 1,740 923 6,539 771 1966- 1967* 922 2,819 1,840 1,546 2,840 73 2,041 114 Increase over previous year 2,861 202 115 773 4,694 461 1,638 1,432 Subtotal Natural Sciences 74 69 413 Increase over previous year 1,565 1,248 3,508 376 94 1,317 412 209 95 - 67 296 3,096 1,878 1,834 1963-• 1964 1,181 Physical and Applied Sclencea 1,491 - 294 209 Increase over previous year 1,275 198 2,800 204 1962.• 1963 2,506 145 1,669 203 1961.• 1962* 196 144 151 L i f e Sciences 1,370 2,308 1,280 150 1959.. 1 9 6 0 * Ine r e a s e over previous year 2,112 97 98 Sub-tocal human aclences O N 1,171 29,710 < O T a b l e24X Immigrants to C a n a d a by Country of Last Permanent Residence and Intended Occupation: "University Teaching", 1962 to 1974 Total 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 160 545 499 284 143 117 155 140 3,414 25.0 353 25.0 457 29.7 195 29.0 271 Cent 95 24.4 23.6 23.9 20.8 15.1 10.5 11.3 10.5 11.7 19.3 France Per C e n t 25 6.4 30 5.6 27 4.0 69 4.9 81 4.1 87 3.8 90 3.8 105 77 5.7 94 6.3 886 5.5 73 7.2 86 3.9 7.2 5.0 41 39 58 77 142 155 7.1 7.2 6.5 8.2 96 6.5 92 7.7 1,265 8.6 61 4.5 75 7.2 175 7.7 157 10.5 97 6.9 14 38 86 177 7.4 54 89 6.4 6.4 5.2 6.0 56 4.7 1,063 6.1 99 4.3 87 7.5 131 6.6 120 7.1 31 4.6 81 3.6 89 4.5 124 128 53 180 113 5.3 166 8.8 80 5.4 5.9 5.1 12.2 9.4 1,033 5.8 556 53.9 708 588 47.8 49.1 Great Per Other Per Britain Western European Countries Cent India, Pakistan 42 Per Cent Other Asia 4 14 6 27 49 Per Cent 1.0 2.6 0.9 2.5 3.5 7.3 1962 to 7.1 6.0 8,195 46. 3 174 Department of Manpower and 477 615 857 918 774 44.0 43.6 43.2 1,013 44.4 1,040 39.7 43.4 48.7 57.0 50 88 13.1 109 10.1 141 10.0 229 11.5 237 9.3 10.4 307 12.8 138 7.3 10.0 103 10.0 159 10.7 10.2 1,857 10.5 390 Source: 267 38.6 37 9.5 All other countries Per Cent 208 44.6 United States Per C e n t 539 672 1,084 1,410 1,986 2,280 2,398 1,886 1,358 1,031 1,481 1,198 17,713 Immigration, unpublished Data. 136 123 1974 P Ö o c o 3 Table Characteristics of University 7 Teachers Percentage Discipline Number Percent oo by Discipline, . , with Doctorate 1973-74 . A ® e e Percentage i „ X Canadian S a l a r y Citizen F e m a l e $ 632 Physical Education Education Sub-total - - 17,632 76.3 21.3 15,670 _ _ 15,"408 - - fine Arts 39.9 15,513 59.6 18.7 41.5 17,826 _ Library and Records Science 1.5 2.2 22.8 1,048 3.7 18.7 1.0 62.0 3.6 68.0 39.4 17,320 15.9 - 66.2 - - 14.9 7.8 0.3 23.9 44.8 18,314 0.3 17.7 40.7 16,829 - 5.1 60.7 59.4 20.2 2.7 47.8 40.6 40.4 16,814 776 224 German 93 83 Studies French 16,099 16,597 63.1 - 28.6 50.0 5.0 Modern Philosophy Religious Studies Sub-total Humanities Anthropology 52.3 15,738 - 2.3 40.2 16,581 - 2.5 49.9 67.0 39.9 17,934 59.4 1.9 60.1 43.0 16,436 - 6,000 21.0 58.9 40.5 16,904 62.1 16.6 17.8 — 23.0 28.1 19.9 5.4 4.7 1.2 61.8 0.4 62.8 38.6 - 16,834 17,701 41.0 — 3.7 39.1 37.4 17,727 72.1 4.6 3.1 2.1 63.8 18,563 63.3 53.7 4.2 66.7 38.3 37.4 1.8 2.4 16.5 35.5 691 1,229 4.3 289 848 Administration 119 1,051 904 Business Economics Geography 6,575 609 Law 504 Political 41.3 40.6 331 Studies Commerce, 72.3 0.6 667 693 537 Languages 0.8 156 Spanish Science Psychology Social 40.1 - 1,465 Media English Other 9.4 623 Arts History Area 18,255 2,682 269 1,037 & Applied Classics Mass 40.6 2,050 Education Music Fine 15,659 29.3 43.5 425 Sub-total N c - 2.2 7.2 Work Sociology Sub-total Social Sciences 58.6 38.0 37.2 17,250 19,007 § 77.1 3.6 5.4 17,736 64.4 7.4 58.2 15.9 1.0 3.0 77.0 23.4 42.6 17,173 17,917 38.1 16,491 81.3 55.5 33.2 55.7 23.0 55.4 37.9 17,607 62.3 10.2 14.7 Table 7 Uy (con*e) C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of U n i v e r s i t y T e a c h e r s by D i s c i p l i n e , Percentage Discipline with Doctorate Average Age 1973-74 Average Salary Percentage Canadian Citizen Percentage Female Agriculture 412 1.5 79.8 43.4 19,797 80.8 3.0 Biology 697 2.4 83.1 40.6 18,767 65.8 10.5 Botany 191 0.7 89.2 40.6 18,367 Related 238 0.8 38.9 41.0 16,087 5 135 0.5 40.7 37.2 17,567 89.2 40.1 18,391 61.4 8.7 76.1 40.8 18,468 69.6 15.7 3.8 Household Science Veterinary & Medicine Sciences 315 Zoology Sub-total Biological Sciences 7.0 Architecture 188 Chemical 241 Civil Engineering Engineering 7.7 40.1 17,474 0.8 87.2 40.5 20,231 0.4 1.6 57.8 41.1 19,512 0.4 286 1.0 72.7 40.2 19,600 0.7 0.3 0.7 Applied Sciences 331 1.1 63.6 40.9 19,629 109 Engineering Engineering Forestry Other 5.0 0.4 72.6 41.3 19,943 0.9 81 Mechanical Mining 77.8 444 Engineering Electrical 1.1 11.9 0.3 50.6 40.2 18,434 0.3 502 1.7 0.7 2,182 7.6 59.7 40.6 19,175 260 0.9 18.7 41.4 22,201 3,032 10.6 42.7 41.8 21,745 11.1 Nursing 431 1.5 3.9 39.1 13,333 98.7 Pharmacy 143 0.5 79.6 40.8 18,873 10.2 3,846 13.5 38.2 41.4 20,764 73.4 20.6 Sub-total Applied Sciences Dentistry Medicine Sub-total Health Professions GRAND TOTAL 78.2 37.8 57.3 5.3 3.5 90.3 39.9 19,449 66.4 5.7 1.5 86.9 40.1 19,108 66.4 1.4 1,124 Related Physics Sub-total 3.9 516 3.9 86.6 38.6 18,383 69.3 3.0 4,218 14.8 82.0 38.9 18,618 63.2 4.1 56.8 40.0 18,369 1,315 Chemistry and 18,016 1,162 Ma themat ics Geology 9.2 Physical Sciences 28,539 13.0 50 T a b l e24X Employment of Ph.Ds by Y e a r Before 1940-49 and D i s c i p l i n e 1950-54 1954-59 15 3 10 11 1 2 - 14 _ 1 1 in F e d e r a l 1960 14 5 Humanities Social 1940 of A p p o i n t m e n t 1961 2 Departments 1962 1963 3 4 3 1 1 1 under 1964 the Public Service Employment Act*, 1940 to 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 3 3 4 3 11 7 7 12 3 2 8 1 3 10 2 4 1 1 14 4 3 1 1 2 2 1 15 2 — 11 2 — 1 1 2 3 3 1 1 1971 1972 1972 Total 109 Sciences Economics Sociology & Anthropoly Political Science 1 3 3 2 2 1 3 1 - - 4 1 - 1 - 1 1 104 25 21 1 2 7 21 30 29 7 5 7 6 8 8 10 17 18 22 29 25 25 274 26 135 4 136 120 21 21 28 54 66 57 49 31 25 23 9 3 5 2 6 9 9 6 9 7 8 4 13 5 847 1 30 4 12 1 3 24 34 31 9 5 7 4 12 28 16 28 24 24 19 13 4 285 1 20 34 24 9 9 15 10 20 9 14 6 10 9 215 9 16 9 7 11 2 4 1 10 2 5 5 5 8 8 9 13 17 6 5 127 Dentistry Medicine 3 "32 2 2 1 2 6 3 12 1 7 3 8 2 5 1 4 2 20 5 5 6 6 3 61 41 7 10 7 8 13 10 14 8 18 16 8 3 4 140 10 1 16 44 2 - Veterinary 42 253 304 269 60 59 70 42 78 133 138 134 126 113 91 64 43 2,019 49 274 334 298 67 64 77 48 86 141 148 151 144 135 120 89 68 2,293 Psychology Sub-total - Human Agricultural & Sciences Chemistry & Related Mathematics * & Physics Natural Sciences Total Excludes Source: - 15 - 92 Sciences Sub-total Grand - - Sciences Geology Health - Biological Sciences Engineering Physical - National Adapted Research from a Table Council, prepared Defense by D r . Research Valerie Board and Sonnenfeld all crown 1 corporations. from unpublished Public Service Commission data. 3 2 29 283 N C k c C D 2! B" 3 61 T h e Ph.D. Dilemma in Canada Revisited During the sixties, about 100 Ph.Ds joined the federal public service annually. The number fell t o 89 in 1971, and 68 in 1972. In 1972, the overwhelming majority of the Ph.Ds employed by the government had obtained their degrees in the natural sciences: 2,019 (88%). The humanities and social sciences accounted for the remaining 12%. Table 9 shows employment sectors of Ph.Ds immediately after graduation. In the early seventies, a very small percentage of the graduates in the humanities were employed by government. The percentage in the social sciences was somewhat higher, mainly due to economists. Fewer than 15% of the physical and applied scientists, who represented the largest group of Ph.Ds produced, joined the government during these years. Unemployment — Under — utilization Table 9 also shows the unemployment rate of Ph.Ds by field of study. The rates indicate that only a small number are actually unemployed; a more critical question is whether they obtain positions in which their training is effectively utilized. By virtue of their education, aptitude and motivation, Ph.D. graduates are able to displace masters and bachelors degree-holders. Under-utilization is more the issue than unemployment. This topic has not received the attention it deserves. In recent years, one-third of the Ph.D. graduates in the natural sciences have continued their training as post-doctorals. It has been estimated that between 2,000 and 3,000 Ph.Ds are now engaged in postdoctoral studies, many of them in a kind of holding pattern, since viable employment opportunities are scarce. Degrees From 1960-61 to 1973-74, Canadian universities awarded 14,280 Ph.Ds, 60% of them between 1969-70 and 1973-74. The annual number increased from 300 during the early sixties, to almost 2,000 in the early seventies. Table 10 shows the number of doctoral degrees awarded between 1960-61 and 1973-74 by broad field of study, and Table 11 gives the same information for selected disciplines. For the 14-year period, annual Ph.D. output in education increased from 7 to 120, and in engineering f r o m 19 to 300. The number of Ph.Ds in mathematics rose f r o m 10 to 150, and in psychology, from 20 to 150. It should also be remembered that in those years, a large number of Canadians obtained doctoral degrees abroad, particularly in the human sciences, and most of them returned to Canada. During the sixties, almost three-quarters of the Ph.Ds awarded by Canadian universities were in the natural sciences, but this proportion has declined to two-thirds. The humanities and social sciences represent only 33% of Ph.D. output, although close to 60% of doctoral enrolment. This reflects a longer completion time, and a higher withdrawal rate. Between 1964-65 and 1971-72, 10,876 new university positions, in addition to replacements, were created in the humanities and social sciences. But Canada produced only 2,627 Ph.Ds in these fields, including foreign students who returned home and graduates who might have accepted employment in industry and government. It is obvious, therefore, that there was a substantial scarcity of teachers with a Ph.D. Universities' short-term remedies were to hire landed immigrants, and lower the formal teaching qualifications. These practices had two results: 1) the proportion of foreign- Table24X Employment Sector of Ph.Ds Immediately after Graduation from Canadian Universities by Field of Study, 1970-71 to 1974-75 (in percent) Humanities Social Sciences 1970-71 1971-72 1972-73 1973-74 1974-75 Industry 83.5 70.2 - - 66.1 52.6 74 .3 63.3 59 .2 51.9 51.9 0.8 84.8 - University Teaching 1970-71 1971-72 1972-73 1973-74 1974-75 3.6 1 .6 1.6 4 .7 3.8 5.3 Government 1.9 1.7 4.9 5.5 5.8 9 .3 7.6 15 .4 14.6 19.0 Private Research Institutes 1.9 1.1 2.7 2.0 4.5 2 .7 4.0 3 .0 6.6 5.5 Other (mostly in the educational sector) 5.1 9.7 13.8 18.9 19.4 9 .8 20.7 14 .5 20.3 Unemployed 6.3 4.0 8.4 6.7 8.1 2 .2 2.8 3 .2 2.7 Total Number Number in Post Doctoral Studies* 158 176 225 254 222 4 3 5 4 4 6.3 2.9 183 251 338 364 41C 14 11 12 16 20 * Those Ph.D. graduates who were persuing post doctoral studies have been excluded from the percentage distribution. Source: Adapted from data of the Canadian Association of Graduate Schools. Table 9 (cont'd) Employment Sector of Ph.Ds Immediately after Graduation from Canadian Universities by Field of Study, 1970-71 to 197 4-75 (in Percent) _ . Life Sciences Physical and Applied Sciences 1970-71 1971-72 1972-73 1973-74 46.5 40.0 40.7 23.2 8.8 6.3 5.9 22.3 18.0 Private Research Institutes 5.3 Other (mostly in the education sector) Unemployed Industry Government 1970-71 1971-72 1972-73 "7.3 41.0 38.8 33.1 31 .4 31.3 9.2 11.2 22.7 25.7 29.2 30. .4 22.2 18.6 30.1 21.5 14.7 12.9 13.2 14, .3 14.8 9.8 16.6 14.5 1E.5 1.9 4.8 9.2 .2 10, 12.5 9,4 21.0 12. 2 15.3 14.1 9.1 10.9 11.3 .1 9. 11.7 7.6 University Teaching 4.9 5.9 1.1 7.3 10.5 6.9 4.0 4. .6 7.4 20^ 427 420 469 461 351 po 232 249 277 244 164 Total Number 170 205 253 262 Number in Post Doctoral Studies* 126 131 160 152 1974-75 1973-74 1974-75 * Those Ph.D. graduates who were persuing post doctoral studies have been excluded from the percentage distribution. Source: Adapted from data of the Canadian Association of Graduate Schools Table Doctoral . Degrees Awarded by — 1960-61 Field of 10 Study, 1960-61 to . 1961-62 1962-63 1963-64 1964-65 1973-74 • 1965-66 1966-67 1967-68 1968-69 ———— 1969-70 1970-71 1971-72 1972-73 1973-74 2 0: * o 3 42 Humanities 57 Social 41 94 96 119 157 188 208 231 56 56 70 78 134 157 166 229 231 291 290 13 22 25 39 73 60 78 77 109 123 120 235 Sciences 105 94 108 121 152 182 211 303 336 401 4 94 548 64 5 645 Sciences* (34) (29) (26) (25) (27) (26) (27) (30) (30) (29) (30) (32) (33) (33) and Biological 57 67 100 99 97 125 115 154 173 235 276 240 249 250 and Sub-total Percentage 87 39 17 74 12 35 7 Sciences Education 52 57 applied 19 20 26 46 45 83 105 103 168 188 225 261 300 300 24 25 30 31 44 46 50 58 56 95 102 151 180 185 101 115 157 184 228 260 298 388 375 456 528 524 558 560 Human Human Agriculture Sciences Engineering Sciences Health Professions and Occupations Mathematics Sciences and Sub-total Percentage Grand * Physical Natural Natural Sciences 201 227 313 360 414 514 568 703 772 974 1,131 1,176 1,287 1,295 Sciences* (66) (71) (74) (75) (73) (74) (73) (70) (70) (71) (70) (68) (67) (67) 421 481 566 696 779 1,006 1,108 1,375 1,625 1,724 1,932 1,940 Sciences in Total Percentage Source: 306 breakdown Statistics between Canada. Human 321 Sciences and Natural brackets. Doctoral Degrees Fine Arts Economics i Geography Business Awarded Political Science By Selected Psychology Disciplines, Social Work 1960-61 to 1972-73 Chemistry griculture Medecine Mathematics S Physics 1960-61 10 2 25 6 23 1961-62 5 3 20 16 25 10 93 1962-63 6 3 24 17 30 6 135 1963-64 7 3 35 17 27 21 142 P. 1964-65 12 5 31 11 41 28 159 7> 1965-66 14 3 5 44 16 40 34 177 1966-67 10 8 1 47 14 46 43 203 1967-68 20 10 10 82 15 52 49 276 1968-69 21 13 8 98 27 50 53 282 60 87 61 332 85 369 1969-70 15 14 18 86 1970-71 28 18 21 119 46 95 109 52 134 1971-72 27 22 31 1972-73 49 24 20 121 64 163 121 841 361 813 Total Source: Statistics Canada 81 -o =r b Ö cT 97 113 356 375 2,980 3 3 TABLE 12 FULL AND PART-TIME DOCTORAL STUDENT ENROLMENT HUMAN SCIENCES ACADEMIC YEAR HUMANITIES 2 BY FIELD OF STUDY, 1969-70 TO 1975-76 x NATURAL SCIENCES SOCIAL SCIENCES SUBTOTAL 1969-70 2,779 (23.8) 2,852 (24.4) 3,088 (24.1) 3,345 (26.1) 3,263 (24.6) 3,827 (28.8) BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES & HEALTH PROFESSIONS SUBTOTAL 2,199 (17.2) 6,381 (49.8) 2,122 (16.0) 6,188 (46.6) 14.2 4,169 (31.3) 7,548 (56.7) 1973-74 3,401 (25.9) 4,369 (33.3) 7,770 (59.2) 1974-75 3,295 (25.2) 4,640 (35.5) 7,935 (60.8) 3,288 (24.7) 4,934 (37.0) 8,222 (61.7) 1,938 (14.5) 3,541 (27.0) 1,810 (13.8) 5,351 (40.8) 3,352 (25.7) 1,774 (13.6) 5,126 (39.3) 3,284 (24.6) 1,826 (13.7) 5,110 (38.3) 13,331 -7.5 13,12] 4.2 2.1 *Figures in brackets indicate the percentage by field of study. Source: 13,278 5,783 (43.3) 2.9 1975-76 12,814 -6.5 3,845 (28.8) 3.6 11,649 -3.0 6.5 3,379 (25.4) TOTAL 6.1 7.9 1972-73 ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE 6,016 (51.8) 4,066 (30.6) 7,090 (53.4) 2,101 (18.0) 4,182 (32.6) 6,433 (50.2) 1971-72 PHYSICAL & T^PPLIED SCIENCES 3,915 (33.8) 5,631 (48.2) 1970-71 ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE Adapted from the Canadian Association of Graduate Schools data. 13,061 -0.3 13,332 67 T h e Ph.D. Dilemma in Canada Revisited born university teachers increased rapidly for a number of years, a situation which had implications for Canada's cultural identity, and 2) some who were hired might have been better suited to other activities PH.D. ENROLMENT AND GOVERNMENT ASSISTANCE Numbers Doctoral enrolment trends form the basis of the future supply of Ph.Ds. In the early seventies, about 13,000 full- and part-time students were enrolled at Canadian universities. Unlike the sixties when enrolment increased rapidly each year, between 1970-71 and 1974-75 it levelled off but increased in 1975-76. The proportion of part-time doctoral students rose from 19.7% of full-time enrolment in 1969-70 to 33.6% in 1975-76. There was a marked shift during the early seventies from the natural sciences to the humanities and social sciences. In 1969-70, the former accounted for 51.8% of all doctoral students, but the percentage declined to 38.3% in 1975-76 (Table 12). Conversely, the humanities and social sciences increased from 48.2% to 61.7%. In absolute numbers, enrolment in the physical and applied sciences fell from 3,915 to 3,284, whereas it rose from 2,852 to 4,934 in the social sciences, and has remained constant in the humanities and life sciences. Geographic Location Another important feature of Canadian doctoral enrolment is the fact that more than 50% of it is in Ontario universities. The University of Toronto alone enrolled more than 20% of all doctoral students (Table 13). Citizenship Expansion of Canadian graduate education at the doctoral level was achieved, to a large extent, with foreigh-born graduate students frequently taught by foreign-born faculty. A large percentage of full-time doctoral students are non-Canadian (Table 14). In 1972-73, landed immigrants accounted for almost one-third, while another 15% were foreign students. Table 15 shows that Americans were the largest single group from abroad, constituting 12.6% of all enrolment, with a high of 22.7% in the humanities and a low of 2.6% in engineering. In contrast, doctoral students from Asian countries made up 13.3%, with a low of 2.7% in the humanities and a high of 32.5% in engineering. Government Assistance A possible contributing factor for the increased number of foreign-born doctoral students was the formula financing scheme in some provinces, which allocated funds to universities on a per-capita of enrolment basis. By 1975-76, Ontario universities were receiving about $12,000 a year from the provincial government, for each Ph.D. student, in addition to tuition fees. Thus, it was in the universities' interest to expand doctoral enrolment. Moreover, there were support programs for graduate students. Most doctoral students at Canadian universities have been supported by federal or provincial government fellowships, by teaching or research assistantships and scholarships TABLE 12 FULL AND PART-TIME DOCTORAL ENROIMENT AT FIVE SELECTED UNIVERSITIES * 1968-69 TO 1975-76 MONTREAL TORONTO SUBTOTAL OTHER 22 UNIVERSITIES 1,016 (10.6) 763 (7.9) 1,817 (18.9) 5,286 (55.0) 4,318 (45.0) 9,604 1,015 (8.7) 1,327 (11.4) 883 (7.6) 2,290 (19.6) 6,476 (55.5) 5,201 (44.5) 11,677 1,074 (8.4) 1,079 (8.4) 1,325 (10.3) 973 (7.6) 2,550 (19.9) 7,001 (54.6) 5,813 (45.4) 12,814 1971-72 1,077 (8.1) 1,061 (8.0) 1,314 (9.9) 1,000 (7.5) 2,647 (20.0) 7,099 (53.5) 6,169 (46.5) 13,268 1972-73 1,019 (7.6) 1,024 (7.7) 1,239 (9.3) 1,116 (8.4) 2,700 (20.3) 7,098 (53.2) 6,233 (46.8) 13,331 1973-74 942 (7.2) 948 (7.2) 1,202 (9.2) 1,174 (9.0) 2,724 (20.8) 6,990 (53.3) 6,131 (46.7) 13,121 1974-75 910 (7.0) 891 (6.8) 1,128 (8.6) 1, 174 (9.0) 2,854 (21.9) 6,957 (53.3) 6,104 (46.7) 13,061 1975-76 895 (6.7) 836 (6.3) 1,082 (8.1) 1,372 (10.3) 2,821 (21.2) 7,006 (52.6) 6326 (47.4) 13,332 ALBERTA BRITISH COLUMBIA 1968-69 808 (8.4) 882 (9.2) 1969-70 961 (8.2) 1970-71 YEAR MAGILL *Figures in brackets indicate percentage distribution. Source : Adapted from the Canadian Association of Graduate Schools data. TOTAL T a b l e 24 X CITIZENSHIP ÄND EMIGRATION STATUS OF FULL-TIME MASTERS AND PH.D. STUDENTS BY FIELD OF STUDY, 1972-1973 (in percent) Field of Study CANADIAN CITIZEN FORFION PTCDEfl? LANDED »MIGRANT MASTERS PH.D MASTERS PH.D 6.3 NON-CANADIAN SWllp NOT REPORTED 8.6 MASTERS PH.D. P Ö TOTAL „ NUMBER MASTERS PH.D. O Education 81.1 69.9 12.1 20.7 Fine & Applied Arts 80.2 75.9 14.3 22.2 3.6 1.9 217 54 Humanities 73.4 56.4 12.6 30-0 12.9 10.9 1.1 2.9 3,114 1,777 9.6 11.0 1.3 1.2 5,826 1,919 1,468 618 Social Sciences 77.5 59.9 11.6 27.9 Agriculture & Biological Sciences 76.2 53.0 12.4 31.6 12.8 1.6 2.6 969 830 Engineering 51.5 33.8 28.2 43.3 19.7 1.5 3.2 1,759 1.043 Health Professions and Occupations 75.5 61.3 19.0 29.6 7.9 485 432 Mathematics and Physical Sciences 64.6 45.4 20.6 40.9 12.3 1,598 1,852 53.0 15.1 15,114 8.395 11.0 Hie legal status of graduate students was available for only about 80% of the master's and doctoral students. Source: Statistics Canada, unpublished data. 12.1 1.3 T^ble 15 CITIZENSHIP OF FULL-TIME PH.D. STUDENTS BY COUNTRY AND FIELD OF STUDY. 1972-1973 (in percent) CENTRAL & SOUTH AMERICA FIELD CF CUJDY CANADA Education 70.5 10.8 3.6 2.1 0.8 0.2 2.4 3.9 5.7 614 Humanities 57.2 22.7 6.8 5.7 1.0 0.6 1.4 1.9 2.7 1,751 Social Sciences 60.9 15.9 6.2 1.9 0.5 0.3 2.7 1.9 6.8 1,888 Agriculture and Biological Sciences 53.9 12.0 8.2 4.2 0.7 0.6 2.7 2.6 15.2 817 Engineering 34.7 2.6 4.2 10.1 0.3 2.0 11.8 1.8 32.5 1,017 Health Professions and Occupations 61.6 4.8 3.6 7.4 1.4 1.5 1.1 1.7 17.0 927 Mathematics and Physical Sciences 46.8 8.0 9.6 7.0 0.6 1.5 2.0 2.8 21.7 1,798 53.8 12.6 6.9 5.9 0.7 0.9 3.5 2.4 13.3 8,442 TOTAL UNITED KINGDOM FRANCE & OTHER EUROPEAN UNITED STATES CARIBBEAN The information was available far about 80% of the full-time doctoral students. Source: Statistics Canada, unpublished data. AFRICA SOUTH PACIFIC ASIA TOTAL t NUMBER 71 The Ph.D. Dilemma in Canada Revisited f r o m the universities, or by student loans. It has been estimated that 50% to 75% of doctoral students in the physical and applied sciences have obtained funding through National Research Council grants. (The exact number is difficult to determine because National Research Council support could consist of either direct fellowships to students, or research grants provided to universities or individual faculty members, which enable them to hire doctoral students as research assistants.) Consequently, in most of the natural sciences doctoral students have experienced little difficulty obtaining financial support to cover their living and transportation expenses. By contrast, only one-third of the full-time doctoral students in the humanities and social sciences have been supported by the Canada Council. Others have received fellowships from the provinces, or have benefited f r o m the federal Canada Student Loan Plan. The Canada Council increased the number of fellowships in the humanities and social sciences from 426 in 1965-66 to a high of 2,456 in 1970-71; they declined to 1,387 by 1975-76. Table 16 shows the number of Canada Council doctoral fellowships by discipline between 1965-66 and 1975-76. An estimated one-third of the full-time doctoral students at Canadian universities were benefiting each year f r o m the Council's Program. The federal Canada Student Loan Plan has made it possible for doctoral students to borrow interest-free $1,000 to $1,800 annually (up to a present maximum of $9,800), depending on the province (excluding Quebec), and the year the loan was granted. The percentage who have done so is comparatively low. As an illustration, during the late sixties and early seventies, there were about 10,000 full-time doctoral students at Canadian universities each year, out of which only a few hundred took advantage of the Canada Student Loan Plan. Table 17 gives the number of Canada Student Loan Plan certificates issued, by province: a total of 373 in 1964-65 which increased to 3,238 in 1974-75. The majority, 3 035, went to Ontario residents. The number of certificates in Ontario had risen f r o m 504 in 1971-72 to 2,177 the next year, reflecting a change in the Ontario Student Assistance Program so that it consisted of an $800 loan and a grant of up to $600. The Canada Student Loan Plan also offered financial assistance for doctoral studies abroad. In 1967-68, of the 593 recipients, 29.7% were studying in the United States, 10.6% in the United Kingdom, and 3% in other countries (Table 18). Six years later, in 1973-74, the number of loan recipients had increased to 2,656. However, of the 2,451 studying in Canada, 2,275 were in Ontario. Studies abroad had declined: 4.2% in the United States, 2.2% in the United Kingdom, and 1.3% in other countries. Since most doctoral students receive financial assistance from universities and federal and provincial sources, their main economic contribution to their education consists of foregone income. DOCTORAL PROGRAMS Historical Development At present, 34 universities offer Ph.D. programs, most of which were created during the sixties and early seventies. This is a considerable change f r o m 1944-45 when only five TABLE 12 Canada Council Doctoral Fellowship Holders By Discipline, 1965-66 to 197 5-76 1965-66 Administrative Studies Business Administration Anthropology (Archaeology) Economics / M EducaticnU) Fine Arts Geography £ Demography His:ory C l a s s i;;s English 7rcnch German Other Foreign Languages lav Linguistics Mathematics Philosophy Political Science I-rye ho legy .. RciiC'ious Studies^ Social ' , . ' o r k Sociology Other - 9 53 - 19 13 68 13 52 ¿1 6 10 3 4 2 32 37 25 1966-67 1967-68 1968-69 - - - 36 125 55 181 79 234 - - - 34 31 132 42 113 68 9 20 14 26 2 84 99 29 53 47 230 45 211 115 27 39 27 41 12 151 154 51 59 69 303 48 321 152 40 56 51 69 16 219 184 •110 - - - - - - - - 115 176 - - 39 85 - - 426 949 1,554 2,183 1969-70 1970-71 23 59 86 207 58 65 54 272 44 323 144 36 76 48 82 36 190 183 122 50 2 163 45 26 64 99 215 92 77 63 257 43 313 138 34 79 40 68 44 183 194 167 55 4 165 36 2,368 2,456 1971-72 31 68 96 18 Z 93 88 56 261 33 286 112 29 86 26 66 44 170 183 200 58 5 166 56 2,395 1972-73 1973-74 1974-75 24 47 90 135 137 71 46 214 22 204 91 19 69 34 44 32 117 153 183 43 3 133 44 18 36 75 113 157 58 36 175 18 173 74 18 59 34 42 27 100 133 175 40 3 120 38 24 29 76 95 144 64 35 149 19 136 60 21 54 31 33 19 81 122 170 31 1,955 1,722 1,534 - 102 39 1975-76 12 21 74 79 152 48 30 125 18 124 49 19 56 34 35 86 103 173 26 1 78 30 1,387 *3etveen 1957-58 and 1964-65 a total of only 1,318 predoctoral fellowships were granted: 97 in 1957-58; 110 in 1958-59; 121 in 1959-60; 133 in 1960-61; 169 in 1961-62; 184 in 1962-63; 216 in 1963-64; 288 in 1964-65. ^ P r i o r to 1969-70, Public Administration was included in Political Science and Business; and Administration often under Economics. ^ P r i o r to 1969-70, Education was included in Psychology. ^Pricr to 1569-70, R e l i g i o u s S t u d i e s v e r c i n c l u d e d i n P h i l o s o p h y . ^ T h i s category includes area? such as Urban and Regional Studies, Communication Studies, Criminology, Information Sciences, and Interdisciplinary subj Source: Annual Keporcs of tne camtaa Council. Table24X Canada Student Loan Plan Certificates for Doctoral Students by Province, 1964-65 to 1974-75 1964-55 1965-66 1966-67 1967-68 1968-69 1969-70 11 11 1970-71 1971-72 1972-73 1973-74 1974-75 7 10 5 3 2 6 2 3 Newfoundland 2 5 5 Prince Edward Island 1 3 3 1 2 23 19 9 24 22 32 29 40 27 45 20 8 13 19 26 12 18 11 10 10 6 10 244 208 127 258 162 185 348 504 2,177 2,472 3,035 14 20 34 32 24 35 35 32 36 28 55 9 23 23 28 24 30 29 16 28 10 17 Alberta 22 51 71 83 106 132 115 84 63 23 31 British Columbia 50 98 112 133 91 95 118 72 50 65 64 373 <440 403 593 454 538 694 771 2,407 2,656 3,238 Nova Scotia New Brunswick Ontario Manitoba Saskatchewan Total Note: Source: The province of Quebec does not participate in the Canada Student Loan Plan, but has its own student assistance program. Department of Finance 73 Table24X Canada Student Loan Plan Doctoral Student Recipients by Province or Country of Study, 1964-65 to 19 74-75 1964-65 Newfoundland 1965-66 1 - 1966-67 iy67-68 1960-69 1 1 - - 1 - 20 12 7 10 2 10 8 10 11 208 Manitoba Saskatchewan Prince Edward Nova Island 1 - 1970-71 1971-72 2 - 1972-73 1973-74 1974- 4 7 12 1 - * Ontario Alberta British Columbia Sub-Total - CANADA - - 8 13 11 19 21 38 13 9 5 6 4 6 5 5 4 12 10 9 12 9 11 38 51 88 131 81 180 105 125 295 392 1,992 2,275 2,739 5 9 10 5 12 14 15 22 7 46 5 5 7 12 2 3 7 7 8 5 8 13 New Brunswick - 2 Scotia Quebec 1969-70 24 32 46 63 80 70 53 61 31 39 6 48 51 58 32 34 69 41 27 32 19 266 247 209 336 229 286 479 546 2,179 2,451 2,968 - United States 64 150 143 176 157 169 140 141 129 112 149 United Kingdom 17 29 32 63 52 65 60 62 65 59 61 Other 6 14 19 18 16 18 15 22 34 34 60 Total 373 440 403 593 454 538 694 771 2,407 2,656 3,238 Quebec is not participating Source: in the Canada Student Loan Plan Department of Finance 75 The Ph.D. Dilemma in Canada Revisited T a b l e 19 Number of Canadian Universities Offering Master's and Doctoral Degree Programs, 1944-45 to 1974-75 Master's degree Doctor of Philosophy 1944-45 17 5 1946-47 18 7 1950-51 22 13 1954-55 23 13 1958-59 28 16 1962-63 31 19 1966-67 38 24 1970-71 45 30 1974-75 52 34 Source: Association of Universities and Colleges of Canada Canadian universities had doctoral programs (Table 19). 6 During the fifties there was little expansion, and fewer than 300 Ph.Ds were granted each year, most of t h e m in the natural sciences. The sixties was an era of dramatic increase in the number of doctoral programs. According to the H a n d b o o k of the Association of Universities and Colleges, in 1970, 851 different doctoral programs were in operation at 30 universities. By 1974 the number had increased t o 1,146 (in addition to 2 , 0 0 0 masters programs), m a n y of which have small enrolments (Table 20). Every province but Prince Edward Island, developed its own programs, w i t h o u t national planning or co-ordination. Thus, 26 universities have doctoral programs in chemistry, 18 in English literature, 19 in history, 15 in geography, and 12 in sociology. Considering the m a n y options in each discipline, the n u m b e r of courses is very large. This is illustrated by a subject like English Literature in which a student can specialize in areas ranging f r o m Medieval studies to m o d e r n drama or p o e t r y . Chemistry, too, is divided into m a n y sub-groups within the m a j o r branches. Although some specialties are in demand, a substantial n u m b e r of doctorates are still produced in 6 Some of these graduate programs are given in affiliation with other universities. 76 Max V o n Zur-Muehlen T a b l e 20 Number of Doctoral Programs at Canadian Universities by Discipline, 1974-75 Discipline Number Humanities Fine and Applied Arts Classics History English French German Spanish Other Modern Languages Philosophy Religious Studies Other humanities 18 5 30 16 9 8 5 11 21 26 12 Sub-Total Humanities 131 Social Sciences Archaeology Anthropology Area Studies Commerce and Business Administration Economics Education Geography Law Political Science Psychology Social Work Sociology Sub-Total Social Sciences 7 8 45 23 19 84 27 6 19 27 4 13 282 Biological Sciences Agriculture Biology Botany Household Science and related Veterinary Medicine and Science Zoology Other Biological Sciences 67 62 26 12 15 8 14 Sub-Total Biological Sciences 204 77 The Ph.D. Dilemma in Canada Revisited Table 20 (con't) Discipline Applied Sciences Architecture Chemical Engineering Civil Engineering Electrical Engineering Mechanical Engineering Mining Engineering Forestry Other Engineering and Applied Sciences Sub-Total Applied Sciences Medical Sciences Dentistry Medicine Pharmacy Other Medical Sciences Sub-Total Medical Sciences Physical Sciences Mathematics Chemistry Geology and related Physics Other Physical Sciences Sub-total Physical Sciences GRAND TOTAL Number 1 21 17 20 18 5 33 101 216 6 84 10 30 130 25 26 15 46 5 117 1,146 other disciplines where demand is subsiding. Therefore, shortages and surpluses can exist within one discipline. Since, for economic, political and structural reasons, Canada's chemical industry will not expand substantially, the question of how many universities should offer doctoral programs in chemistry has been raised. A similar situation seems to have developed in engineering. Altogether, there are 216 different doctoral programs, including 21 in chemical engineering, 17 in civil, 20 in electrical and 18 in mechanical. Because Canadian industry has not hired many engineering Ph.Ds, positions are scarce; for lack of employment opportunities, some students have undertaken post-doctoral studies. In the past, most Ph.Ds were employed in the university sector and others joined the T^ble 15 RATIO BETWEEN PH.D. ENROIMENT AND PH.D. AWARDS BY FIELD OF STUDY, 1969-70 TO 1974-75 (in percent) SIX YEAR AVERAGE TOTAL DEGREES GRANTED 1969-70 1970-71 1971-72 1972-73 1973-74 1974-75 11. 6 8.3 11. 0 9.9 10. 8 7.8 9 9 599 Humanities 4. 8 4.8 6. 2 7.7 7. 9 8.9 6 7 1 ,248 Social Sciences 7 4 6.2 7. 1 7.2 8. 6 8.5 7 5 1 ,355 Biological Sciences 12 9 16.6 17. 2 20.3 22. 2 20.4 18 3 1 117 Applied Sciences 12. 0 16.6 16. 3 20.6 23. 2 23.3 18 7 1 455 Health Occupations 15 3 17.6 21. 0 25.0 28. 1 23.0 21 7 1 176 Physical Sciences 15. 1 15.3 20. 1 19.6 24. 3 21.3 19 3 2 ,933 10. 5 11.0 12. 7 13.4 15. 0 13.8 12 7 9 883 Education ALL FIEIDS Source: Derived frcm the Canadian Association of Graduate Schools' data. 79 T h e Ph.D. Dilemma in Canada Revisited government. The n u m b e r of openings in these areas has diminished in recent years, and indications are that f u t u r e j o b prospects are less t h a n promising. The present saturation of universities and government is particularly critical for humanities and most social science Ph.Ds; u p to 90% of them were traditionally employed in these sectors, although actual numbers are small. Y e t , in 1974-75, there were 131 different doctoral programs in the humanities and 282 in the social sciences. The Ratio of Degrees to Enrolment As a measure of o u t p u t , the ratio of Ph.Ds granted to total enrolment for a six-year period has been estimated by field of study. To overcome the effect of yearly fluctuations, these calculations were based o n a six-year average. Table 21 shows that a b o u t 20% of Ph.D. students have graduated each year in the natural sciences, compared with only 6.7% in the humanities and 7.5% in the social sciences. In chemistry, for example, 23.3% received doctorates each year compared with 5.2% in political science and 5.5% in sociology (Table 22). Expressed differently, it would take a cohort of 100 chemistry doctoral students slightly more t h a n f o u r years to graduate, whereas similar cohorts in political science and sociology would take a b o u t 20 years. In absolute numbers, 2 0 4 Ph.Ds in chemistry were awarded each year between 1969-70 and 1975-76, but only 23 in political science and 20 in sociology. A n u m b e r of illustrations are of interest. Cumulatively, for a seven year period, there were 4 , 7 9 7 Ph.D. students in physics and 9 5 8 degrees were granted — 137 (20.0%) each year. Enrolment in English was greater — 5,630 students — but only 409 Ph.Ds or 58 (7.3%) a year were granted. The ratio of enrolment to Ph.D. awards in most of the humanities and social sciences requires t h o u g h t f u l analysis. More careful selection of students might lessen the drop-out rate (50%) and reduce the length of time for completion of a d o c t o r a t e . Although the formal requirement f r o m masters or equivalent standing to a Ph.D. is t w o to three years, the normal time is five years. By contrast, in most sciences the actual length of study is three years, with a withdrawal rate of less than 25%. Differences in Ph.D. productivity have been attributed t o the less formal structure of the humanities and social sciences, greater emphasis on the dissertation, and the newness of many doctoral programs. Whatever the reason, there is a need for change. F r o m a student's point of view, an indefinite period of study is frustrating and costly, and f r o m society's vantage point, it is also expensive. As previously m e n t i o n e d , most provinces pay universities more than $ 1 0 , 0 0 0 annually for each Ph.D. student. But the small number of doctorates conferred in most of the humanities and social sciences in relation to Ph.D. enrolment in those disciplines m a y have been a blessing in disguise for the seventies. Otherwise, the number of Ph.Ds seeking e m p l o y m e n t would have been even larger. The Irregular Supply of Ph.D.s A cycle of shortage and surplus in the supply of Ph.D.s appears t o be developing in some disciplines. In 1973-74 and 1974-75, fewer new doctoral students registered, than there were Ph.D.s granted. Only 1,545 new doctoral students enrolled in 1973-74, whereas 1,940 degrees were awarded. The figures for 1974-75 were 1,793 new students and 80 Max V o n Zur-Muehlen Table 22 RATIO BETWEEN PH.D. ENROULENT AND PH.D. AWARDS BY SELECTED DISCIPLINES, 1969-70 to 19 75-76 Seven Years TOTAL ENROIMENT Classics S;;ven Year 3 TOTAL DEGREES GRANTED PERCENTAGE AVERAGE ANNUAL NUMBER OF DEGREES GRANTED 596 4,503 5,630 2,657 54 350 409 164 9.1 7.8 7.3 6.2 e 50 Modern Languages S i Literature 2,327 159 6.8 23 Philosophy 3,247 254 7.8 36 Religious Studies 1,419 117 8.2 17 Anthropology & Archaeology 1,379 78 5.6 11 646 55 8.5 £ Econcmics 2,395 150 6.3 21 Geography 1,744 168 9.6 24 6 History English French Cctrmerce, Business Administration 5£ 23 459 45 9.8 Political Science 3,093 161 5.2 2 2 - Psychology 7,635 303 10.5 115 Sociology 2,571 141 5.5 2C Medicine 5,015 1,051 21.0 15C 28 Law 823 193 23.5 Mathematics 4,47$ 664 14.8 95 Chanistry 6,111 1,425 23.3 204 Geology 1,694 256 15.1 37 Physics 4,797 958 20.0 137 90,669 11,708 12.9 1,673 Pharmacy ALL DISCIPLINES* Source: Derived frcm the Canadian Association of Graduate Schools' data. * Includes other disciplines not identified. 1,900 Ph.D.s granted (Table 23). Consequently, taking the drop-out rate for new students into account, there will be a substantial decline in the n u m b e r of degrees conferred three to five years hence. Chemistry exemplifies this b o o m or bust cycle. For seven years Canadian universities awarded an annual average of 2 0 4 Ph.D.s, but in 1973-74 only 57 students enrolled; 103 in 1974-75 and 83 in 1975-76. Thus, a substantial decline in Ph.D.s is likely in three years. However, in 1975-76 the n u m b e r of new doctoral students Table24X New Doctoral Students as a Percentage of Doctoral Enrolment, 1973-74 to 1975-76 1973-74 Enrolment* EDUCATION New Students 1 205 Fine Arts Classics History English French Library Science Modern Languages and Literature Philosophy Religious Studies Other HUMANITIES (Total) 139 92 81 677 875 362 10 8 7 59 98 24 5 1974-75 % Enrolment" 11 5 New Students 1,298 92 65 657 853 344 7 8 8 8 11 6 50 7 6 7 2 6 0 2 b 1975-76 New Students % % Enrolment* 145 11 2 1 335 264 19.8 3 6 71 113 34 1 3 9 10 13 9 14 147 68 645 816 357 10 18 10 92 152 37 2 12.2 14.7 14.3 18.6 10.4 20.0 3 2 8 2 9 3 442 30 fi 8 404 31 7 7 400 46 11.5 470 204 20 4? 14 5 S 5 6 9 25 0 460 197 32 61 15 3 13 3 7 6 9 4 453 193 75 56 21 6 12.4 10.9 8.0 3 233 290 8 4 3,111 338 10 9 3 164 440 13.9 198 19 9 6 214 30 14 0 258 23 8.9 198 14 7 1 210 29 13 8 178 17 9.6 9 1 112 27 24 1 114 29 25.4 Anthropology and Archaeology Area Studies Commerce, Business Administration Economics Geography Law Political Science Psychology Social Work Sociology Other 99 9 377 244 60 486 1 153 37 421 50 61 39 2 74 139 7 51 9 16 16 3 15 12 18 12 18 2 0 3 2 1 9 1 0 404 250 67 509 1,217 40 421 73 82 33 11 82 195 5 61 21 20 13 16 16 16 12 14 28 3 2 4 1 0 5 5 8 429 229 63 522 1 326 45 449 0 97 55 7 78 294 7 77 26 22.6 24.0 11.1 14.9 22.2 15.6 17.1 SOCIAL SCIENCES 3 323 424 12 8 3,517 576 16 4 3 ,613 710 19.7 Source: Derived from the Canadian Association of Graduate Schools' data. * Both full and part-time doctoral students. - o K 3 í: P. Table 23 (cont'd) oo New Doctoral Students as a Percentage of Doctoral Enrolment, 1973-74 to 1975-76 * < o 3 1973-74 Enrolment* New Students 1974-75 % Enrolment* New Students 1975-76 7- Enrolment* New Students 923 139 15 1 1 000 142 14 2 1 087 224 20 6 1 263 150 11 9 1 158 132 11 8 1 267 165 13 0 Dentistry Medicine Pharmacy Other 10 695 101 40 1 101 9 5 10 14 8 45 0 5 9 5 12 644 91 27 1 110 14 6 8 17 15 22 3 1 4 2 12 675 91 30 2 144 25 7 16 21 27 23 HEALTH SCIENCES 846 116 13 7 774 131 16 9 808 178 22 0 Mathematics Chemistry Geology Physics Other 621 760 255 641 51 102 57 50 66 12 16 7 19 10 23 4 5 6 3 5 571 716 260 589 67 85 103 45 55 36 14 14 17 9 53 9 4 3 3 7 580 663 277 512 26 113 83 45 64 20 19 12 16 12 76 2 328 287 12 3 2 203 324 14 6 2 058 325 15 8 13 121 1,545 11 8 13 061 1,793 13 7 13 332 2,306 17 3 BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES APPLIED SCIENCES PHYSICAL SCIENCES TOTAL Source: Derived from the Canadian Association of Graduate Schools' data. * Both full and part-time doctoral students. 7 3 5 3 5 5 2 5 9 83 The Ph.D. Dilemma in Canada Revisited has increased to 2,306 or 17.3% of the total doctoral enrolment with considerable variations by discipline. To this point, discussion has dwelt only on supply. Graduate students in chemistry, as in many other disciplines, have reacted to current diminishing employment opportunities by not continuing to the doctoral level, although information about the demand in three to five years is imperfect. This may be a wise course of action for individual students, but collectively, it creates recurring imbalances. Universities might consider establishing ratios of the number of new Ph.D. students to the total enrolled. In 1973-74, this ratio was 11.8%, 13.7% in 1975-76 for all fields, but varied among disciplines. The problem is to determine the ideal ratio, taking both supply and demand into consideration. The next section simulates anticipated supply and demand for Ph.D.s for university teaching from 1977-78 to 1981-82. PH.D. SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN THE UNIVERSITY SECTOR The demand for Ph.D.s in the next five years is difficult to predict. It has been estimated that only 1.3% to 1.5% of the present 35,000 Ph.D. positions will have to be replaced each year — fewer than 500 annually for the next few years. This means that one out of four of the 2,000 new Ph.D.s produced each year will be absorbed as replacements for Ph.D. holders who retire, die, or withdraw for health reasons. Historically, education and government have employed about 85% of the Ph.D.s in Canada. The present economic climate indicates that those two sectors will utilize a much reduced number of Ph.D.s. Austerity measures instituted by the federal and provincial governments will decrease employment opportunities in the public sector. The combination of financial constraints and demographic trends have the same effect on university teaching positions. Demographic patterns indicate that in a few years, the source population for post-secondary students (18-24 years old) will drop from 3.3 million to 2.7 million, and universities will have to anticipate a decline in enrolment, provided that the participation rate for post-secondary education does not change markedly. A model, described in Appendices A and B,* simulates the supply and demand for Ph.D.s in universities. After adjustments for other employment possibilities the balance is considered a potential surplus. The model treats each of the 42 discipline categories separately, and assumes that there is no substitutability among them. For example, a deficit in dentistry cannot be filled by a surplus in pharmacy. Tables 24 and 25 summarize the supply and demand pattern of Ph.D.s by discipline for university teaching, and serve as a basis for a five-year projection. For most disciplines, the surplus is small in absolute numbers, but large in percentage terms. For example, there is a supply of 12 Ph.D.s in classics and a demand for 6, creating a surplus of 6 persons, but this means 50.0% under-utilization. Between 1977-78 and 1981-82 there will be a cumulative surplus of 3,230 Ph.D.s, 1,780 in the natural sciences and 1,250 in the humanities and social sciences (Table 26). Only in the health sciences do supply and demand seem to balance more. Nevertheless, * Copies of t h e Appendices are available f r o m the Editor. Table 24 Supply of Ph.D.s for University Teaching by Discipline, 1976-77 (cont'd) Ph.D. enrolment Humanities Fine & Applied Arts Classics History English French Other Modern Languages and linguistics Philosophy Religious Studies Others Sub-total Humanities Social Sciences Anthropology Archaeology Area Studies Business Administration Economics Education Geography Law Political Science Psychology Social Work Sociology Other Sub-total Social Sciences Applied Sciences Architecture Chemical Engineering Civil Engineering Electrical Engineering Less Foreign Students in percent balance Length oF Study until graduation Degree granted in percentj balance years each year Withdrawal rate 140 61 544 734 321 60 30 40 55 55 56 43 326 330 144 11 357 5 10 10 10 10 472 10 431 60 172 34 453 193 50 3,161 10 10 10 408 174 45 45 45 45 224 96 25 1,416 45 19 5 283 218 10 40 210 114 429 1,335 229 63 522 1,326 45 449 113 5,093 10 196 36 189 103 386 50 50 50 50 50 60 40 50 65 45 50 65 50 18 20 4 19 41 187 195 322 15 15 15 15 147 68 605 816 10 10 10 5 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 1,26 8 206 57 470 1,193 41 404 102 4,651 37 159 166 274 50 15 15 15 94 51 l'»3 507 124 29 164 656 21 141 51 ,147 17 135 141 233 9 65 66 29 10 39 101 25 6 33 131 4 28 10 430 6 45 47 78 x < Table 24 X Supply of Ph.D.s for University Teaching by Discipline, 1976-77 (cont'd) c > Ph.D. enrolment Less Foreign Students in percent balance Length of Study until graduation Degree granted in percent balance years each year Withdrawal rate 177 . Ill 54 134 1,221 15 15 15 15 150 94 46 114 1,040 15 15 40 50 128 80 28 57 819 3 3 3 3 3 43 27 9 19 274 Biological Sciences Agriculture Biology Botany Veterinary Medicine Zoology Other Sub-Total Biological Sciences 94 310 200 74 240 70 983 10 10 10 10 10 10 85 279 180 67 216 63 890 20 50 10 20 20 20 68 139 162 54 173 50 646 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 23 46 54 18 58 17 216 Health Sciences Dentistry Medicine Pharmacy Other Sub-Total Health Sciences 12 668 91 40 811 10 10 10 10 11 601 82 36 730 20 25 20 20 9 451 66 29 555 3 3 3 3 3 3 150 22 10 185 570 15 484 35 315 3 105 663 277 512 36 2,058 15 15 15 15 564 235 435 31 1,749 15 50 30 50 479 117 305 15 1,231 3 3 3 3 3 160 39 102 5 411 Mechanical Engineering Mining Forestry Other Sub-Total Applied Sciences Physical Sciences Mathematics and related Chemistry Geology Physics Other Sub-Total Physical Sciences TOTAL 13,344 11,918 6,814 1,799 oo Supply of Ph.D.s for University Teaching by Discipline, 1976-77 (cont'd) Returning Canadians United States Humanities Fine & Applied Arts Classics History English French Other Modern Languages and linguistics Philosophy Religious Studies Others Sub-Total Humanities Social Sciences Anthropology Archaeology Area Studies Business Administration Economics Education Geography Law Political Science Psychology Social Work Sociology Other Sub-Total Social Sciences Applied Sciences Architecture Chemical Engineering Civil Engineering Electrical Engineering United Kingdom other countries SubTotal University Less already employed Total teaching Canadian in percentJbalance and Foreign in percent balance N c 22 15 81 79 36 15 15 15 15 15 42 64 23 9 371 20 7 6 9 19 20 8 5 16 20 3 13 5 131 20 11 25 19 58 121 33 11 49 151 7 41 15 561 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 6 6 6 11 12 51 53 89 11 6 16 13 7 5 1 6 2 1 1 1 34 24 3 3 9 10 15 3 2 5 15 2 2 2 19 4 4 30 1 5 3 74 0 7 3 2 2 2 1 0 2 2 3 1 5 3 6 2 4 4 32 25 1 1 1 1 x < 19 13 69 67 31 90 90 90 90 90 17 12 62 60 28 15 36 90 32 15 15 15 15 54 20 90 90 90 49 18 7 285 17 9 21 16 47 103 28 9 42 128 6 35 13 474 75 75 75 75 50 50 75 50 75 50 75 75 75 13 8 16 12 24 52 21 4 32 64 4 26 10 286 11 48 50 85 50 50 50 50 6 24 25 42 8 317 Table 24 Supply of Ph.D.s for University Teaching by Discipline, 1976-77 (cont'd) Returning Canadians United States United Kingdom other countries SubTotal H 3* University Less already employee Total teaching Canadian in percent balance and Foreign in percent balance Mechanical Engineering Mining Forestry Other Sub-Total Applied Sciences 3 3 1 2 21 3 2 1 3 22 0 0 1 3 8 6 5 3 8 51 49 32 12 27 325 5 5 5 5 47 30 11 26 308 50 50 50 50 24 15 6 13 155 Biological Sciences Agriculture Biology Botany Veterinary Medicine Zoology Other Sub-Total Biological Sciences 6 5 8 3 8 2 32 1 3 3 1 3 3 14 1 1 1 1 1 1 6 8 9 12 5 12 6 52 31 55 66 23 70 23 268 5 5 5 5 5 5 29 52 63 22 66 22 254 50 50 50 50 50 50 14 26 32 11 33 11 127 Health Sciences Dent istry Medicine Pharmacy Other Sub-Total Health Sciences 1 7 2 2 12 1 1 1 0 3 1 1 1 0 3 3 9 4 2 18 6 159 26 12 203 5 5 5 5 6 151 25 11 193 50 50 50 50 3 76 12 6 97 12 2 2 16 121 5 115 50 58 10 8 13 5 48 5 3 6 2 18 5 2 10 2 21 20 13 29 9 87 180 52 131 14 498 5 5 5 5 171 49 124 13 472 40 50 50 50 86 24 62 6 236 221 113 93 427 2,226 Physical Sciences Mathematics and related Chemistry Geology Physics Other Sub-Total Physical Sciences TOTAL 2,018 1,186 Ö O 3 O tu 3 w O. oo oo Table 25 Demand and Supply of University Teachers with a Doctorate Degree, 1977-78 fi! X New Growth Education Fine and Applied Arts Classics History English French Other Modern Languages Philosophy Religious Studies Sub-Total Humanities Anthropology Area Studies Commerce, Business Administration Economics Geography Law Political Science Psychology Social Work Sociology Sub-Total Social Sciences TOTAL HUMAN SCIENCES Agriculture Biology Botany Veterinary Medicine Zoology Sub-Total Biological Sciences Replacement New Total 44 18 4 16 21 12 15 11 9 88 29 12 3 10 14 8 11 7 6 59 73 30 7 26 35 20 26 18 15 147 5 2 4 1 9 3 18 12 14 9 8 10 6 5 10 19 5 13 103 253 7 13 3 9 70 170 5 11 3 3 6 4 7 2 2 4 28 19 Proportion with Doctorate Effective Demand Potential Supply Surplus (4) Demand ( - ) Percentaj under-util: 52 17 12 62 60 28 32 49 18 261 4 12 2 4 6 4 41 4 32 4 12 4 11 4 35 4 6 4143 50.0 66.1 53.3 42.8 34.4 71.4 33.3 54.8 75 75 7 2 21 16 4 14 4 14 66.7 87.5 30 75 22 12 - 24 15 13 75 75 75 24 11 10 17 32 8 22 173 423 ' 40 19 6 21 28 16 21 14 12 118 75 80 50 75 80 13 26 4 16 135 312 32 21 4 32 64 4 26 232 562 9 18 5 5 10 80 80 80 80 80 7 14 4 4 8 47 _ 37 50 50 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 - - 23.1 10 4 8 4 10 6 25.0 47.6 4 19 4 38 59.4 59.4 - - 4 10 4 97 250 38.5 41.8 44.5 14 26 32 11 33 4 7 4 12 4 28 4 7 4 25 50.0 46.2 87.5 63.6 75.8 116 4 79 64.6 Table 25 Demand and Supply of University Teachers with a Doctorate Degree, 1977-78 New Growth Replacement 3 4 6 6 5 2 2 6 34 Dentistry Medicine Pharmacy Sub-Total Health Professions 4 45 2 Mathematics and related Chemistry Geology and Related Physics Sub-Total Physical Sciences 19 17 8 22 13 5 15 32 28 13 37 6g 44 179 120 299 GRAND TOTAL 3 30 2 7 75 4 75 75 85 35 446 300 Supply (+) Demand ( - ) Percentage under-utilized 746 75 90 90 90 80 6 24 25 42 24 15 6 13 155 5 56 3 3 76 12 - 4 20 4 9 26.3 75.0 91 4 27 29.7 24 25 12 33 58 4 4 4 4 34 61 12 29 58.6 70.9 50.0 46.8 94 110 50 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 11 Potential Supply 41 2 4 22 5 6 10 10 8 3 4 10 56 1 Effective Demand 64 Architecture Chemical Engineering Civil Engineering Electrical Engineering Mechanical Engineering Mining Engineering Forestry Other Applied Sciences Sub-Total Applied Sciences TOTAL NATURAL SCIENCES * 2 2 4 4 3 New Total Proportion with Doctorate (cont'd) 230 136 59.1 6 2 3 8 86 24 62 20 17 14 18 13 3 5 4114 66.7 83.3 68.0 33.3 75.0 86.7 50.0 38.5 73.5 2 236 592 352 59.4 560 1,194 4602 50.4 Grand total includes demand and supply information for the "other" disciplines not identified. *0 3* P o O Table 26 vo o Supply and Demand of University Teachers with a Ph.D. Degree by Teaching Field, 1977-78 to 1981-82 1978 -79 1977 -78 1979 -80 198C -81 1981 -82 Surplus(+) Surplus(+) Surplus(+) Surplus(4) Surplus(4) or Supply Demand or Supply Demand or Supply Demand or Supply Demand or Supply Demand Deficit(-) Deficit(-) Deficit(-) Deficit(-) Deficit(-) 278 137 +141 278 137 4141 278 137 +141 278 137 4141 278 137 +141 Social Sciences 284 175 + 109 284 175 + 109 284 175 4109 284 175 +109 284 175 4109 Sub-Total Human Sciences 562 312 + 250 562 312 4250 562 312 + 250 562 312 +250 562 312 + 250 Applied Sciences 155 41 4114 155 41 4114 155 41 +114 155 41 + 114 155 41 + 114 Biological Sciences 116 37 + 79 116 37 + 79 116 37 + 79 116 37 + 79 116 37 * 79 Humanities 91 64 + 27 91 64 + 27 91 64 + 27 91 64 + 27 91 64 27 Physical Sciences 230 94 + 136 230 94 +136 230 94 +136 230 94 4136 230 94 +136 Sub-Total Natural Ses. 592 236 +356 592 236 +356 592 236 +356 592 236 +356 592 236 + 356 1 194 548 +646 1,194 548 +646 1,194 548 + 646 1,194 548 +646 1,194 548 +646 Health Sciences GRAND TOTAL 91 T h e Ph.D. Dilemma in Canada Revisited if some of the assumptions underlying the model change, the situation could be different. For example, universities simply might not hire new faculty although an increase in enrolment over the next few years is likely. Or, to economize, they might fill positions that become vacant through retirement and death with graduate students and part-time teachers. This is appealing for universities whose financial resources have been reduced in relative terms. It is even more attractive in view of the fact that as they acquire seniority, faculty move into higher ranks with higher salaries, compared to those of lecturers and assistant professors. As another economy measure, provincial governments and universities might consider a slight increase in the student-teacher ratio which would mean a substantial saving of positions each year. The future prospect is that few teachers will be employed in relation to the total. This could have serious implications for the quality of university education in Canada. During the sixties, universities had to rely on less than fully-trained personnel to meet the growing demand, many of whom are still employed. Now when there is an adequate supply of Ph.D.s, even the best experience difficulty obtaining university positions. Without suitable employment it is difficult for them to keep abreast of research in their field, and there is a danger that their training may become obsolete. The supply of Ph.D.s, at least for the next five years, can be projected more accurately because doctoral students now enrolled will still be in the system. Nevertheless, particularly at the discipline level, the figures are meant to indicate the magnitude of the problem rather than to predict precise numerical values. From a policy point of view this exercise should be regarded as only one type of analysis, which needs to be supplemented by information from other sources and judgmental considerations. This simulation seems to indicate that the employment opportunities in the university sector for the next five years will be limited and many Ph.D. holders will have to pursue other career alternatives. This scenario does not only provide challenges for the individual Ph.D. recipient, but also to the universities as well as government and industry. They will have to develop new avenues of employment for this group of highly-skilled and motivated young Ph.D. holders. 7 List of Tables Table No. 1. 2. Selected Occupations of Ph.Ds by Sex, 1973 3. Geographic Origin of Ph.Ds, 1973 4. Foreign born Ph.Ds by Country of Birth and Period of Immigration, 1973 5. Full-Time University Teachers by Field of Study, 1956-57 to 1974-75 6. 7 Employment of Ph.Ds by Industrial Sector and by Age, 1973 Immigrants to Canada by Country of Last Permanent Residence and Intended Occupation: "University Teaching", 1962 to 1974 It needs to be stressed t h a t these figures d o n o t indicate the actual m a g n i t u d e of u n e m p l o y m e n t of Ph.D. holders. It means t h a t d o c t o r a l graduates will have to look b e y o n d the traditional university e m p l o y m e n t sector. It seems unlikely t h a t Ph.D.s will be u n e m p l o y e d , b u t a certain a m o u n t of u n d e r - e m p l o y m e n t may be e x p e c t e d and t h a t Ph.D. holders m a y displace those w h o are less qualified. 92 Max Von Zur-Muehlen 7. Characteristics of University Teachers by Discipline, 1973-74 8. Employment of Ph.Ds by Year of Appointment and Discipline in Federal Departments under the Public Service Employment Act, 1940 to 1972 9. Employment Sector of Ph.Ds Immediately after Graduation f r o m Canadian Universities by Field of Study, 1970-71 to 1974-75 10. Doctoral Degrees Awarded by Field of Study, 1960-61 to 1973-74 11. Doctoral Degrees Awarded by Selected Disciplines, 1960-61 to 1972-73 12. Full and Part-Time Doctoral Student Enrolment by Field of Study, 1969-70 to 1975-76 13. Full and Part-Time Doctoral Enrolment at Five Selected Universities, 1968-69 to 1975-76 14. Citizenship and Immigration Status of Full-Time Masters and Ph.D. Students by Field of Study, 1972-73 15. Citizenship of Full-Time Ph.D. Students by Country and Field of Study, 1972-73 16. Canada Council Doctoral Fellowship Holders by Discipline, 1965-66 to 1974-75. 17. Canada Student Loan Plan Certificates for Doctoral Students by Province, 1964-65 to 1974-75. 18. Canada Student Loan Plan Doctoral Student Recipients by Province or Country of Study, 1964-65 to 1974-75. 19. Number of Canadian Universities Offering Masters and Doctoral Degree Programs, 1944-45 to 1974-75. 20. Number of Doctoral Programs at Canadian Universities by Discipline, 1974-75. 21. Ratio between Ph.D. Enrolment and Ph.D. Awards by Field of Study, 1969-70 to 1974-75. 22. Ratio between Ph.D. Enrolment and Ph.D. Awards by Selected Discipline, 1969-70 to 1975-76. 23. New Doctoral Students as a percentage of Doctoral Enrolment, 1973-74 to 1975-76. 24. Supply of Ph.Ds for University Teaching by Discipline, 1976-77. 25. Demand and Supply of University Teachers with a Doctorate Degree by Discipline, 1977-78. 26. Supply and Demand of University Teachers with a Ph.D. degree by Field of Study, 1977-78 to 1981-82.