T h e Canadian Journal of Higher Education, Vol. X V I I - 1 , 1987 La revue c a n a d i e n n e d ' e n s e i g n e m e n t supérieur, Vol. XVII-1, 1987 Myths and Realities: The Fallacy of Faculty Shortages in the Next Decade MAX VON ZUR-MUEHLEN* ABSTRACT This study confronts the popular conviction that Canadian universities are likely to suffer serious shortages of faculty in the 1990s. Despite an aging professoriate, faculty replacement demand will increase only gradually. Flexible retirement conditions and faculty renewal incentives have lessened the danger of a large simultaneous retirement, and increased demand due to growth is not likely. On the supply side, doctoral enrolment has increased substantially in recent years. Past cohort analysis and projections of enrolment trends indicate that the supply of doctoral recipients will be adequate at least until 1995. Furthermore, holding patterns for recent doctoral graduates and the coming of age of graduate programs in Canada suggest a flexible supply potential in response to any increased demand. This study concludes that in fact there will be a 2:1 faculty supply!demand surplus until at least 1990 and that such a situation will be maintained well into the 1990s. RÉSUMÉ Cette étude s'attaque à la conviction populaire qu'il y aura une pénurie de professeurs dans les universités canadiennes durant les années 1990. En dépit de l'âge avancé de la plupart du corps enseignant, la demande due au remplacement des professeurs ne s'accroîtra que graduellement. Des conditions de retraite flexibles ainsi que des programmes pour inciter le remplacement ont diminué le danger d'un retrait en bloc des professeurs dans les années 1990. Il est prévu que la demande d'enseignants se limitera à celle causée par le remplacement. Du côté de l'offre, les inscriptions au doctorat se sont accrues considérablement depuis quelques années. Basée sur une analyse des cohortes antérieures et sur les projections d'inscriptions, la présente étude prévoit une offre adéquate au moins jusqu'en 1995. En plus, des « postes d'attente » des diplômés récents de doctorat, ainsi que la maturation des programmes de 2ième et de 3ième cycles impliquent *Research Professor, University of O t t a w a , Faculty of Administration, and Executive Director of the Canadian Higher Education Research N e t w o r k ( C H E R N ) 14 M a x von Zur-Muehlen que l'offre sera flexible face à toute éventuelle croissance de la demande. Cette étude arrive à la conclusion que l'offre d'enseignants sera deux fois plus élevée que la demande jusqu'en 1990, et que cette situation se maintiendra durant une bonne partie de la décennie suivante. INTRODUCTION A popular misconception in the recent academic literature is that there will be severe faculty shortages at Canadian universities in the 1990s. Such was the suggestion of the 1984 report of the Commission on Canadian Studies: Canadian universities will again be confronted in the coming decade with an acute shortage of qualified teachers and with the consequent prospect of once more having to import teaching staff in large numbers from other countries, (p. 32) These arguments also surface in the second Five-Year Plans (1985-1990) of the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC) and the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC). Each warned that the supply of doctoral degree holders might be inadequate to satisfy the university faculty demand in the next decade. The SSHRC noted: If nothing is done over the next decade to remedy the situation, Canada will be forced once again to import large numbers of trained and experienced researchers from abroad in the 1990's. (p. 45) NSERC stated: In 1 9 7 9 , N S E R C i d e n t i f i e d a n d q u a n t i f i e d t h e s e r i o u s attrition rate of the existing professoriate which will c o m m e n c e in e a r n e s t about 1990 and accelerate rapidly t h r o u g h the 9 0 ' s . T h i s fact, c o u p l e d with a lack of faculty positions for y o u n g p e o p l e d u r i n g the 1 9 8 0 ' s translates into critical shortages o f p r o f e s s o r s in t h e d e c a d e a h e a d , ( p . 2 3 ) This article attempts to demonstrate that, happily, the supply of Canadian university teachers in most disciplines is likely to be adequate for many years to come. The case against probable faculty shortages can be divided into two parts: the demand for university teachers and the supply of doctoral graduates. The Anticipated Demand for University Teachers On the demand side, the situation in the 1990s will be quite different from that of the 1960s and early 1970s, which was characterized by a major influx of foreign professors. At that time, the Canadian university system was expanding at a phenomenal rate. Total full-time faculty nearly quintupled, rising from 6,500 in 1960-61 to 31,600 in 1976-77; on average, about 1,500 new positions were added annually from the sixties to the mid-seventies. Growth since then has been more gradual: a 12% increase to 35,500 in 1985-86. By contrast, in the 1990s, with no foreseeable increase in university positions, replacement (i.e. due to retirement and mortality) will be the only significant demand factor. Moreover, 15 M y t h s and Realities: T h e Fallacy of Faculty Shortages in the Next D e c a d e demand may possibly be lessened by the demographically induced enrolment decline foreseen for the late 1980s and early 1990s and/or by downsizing due to financial constraints. Shifts in student preferences may also affect the demand for faculty in certain disciplines. Many of the analyses that warn of impending faculty shortages have based their conclusions on the uneven age distribution of university teachers. In Ontario, for example, the Bovey Commission noted the skewed faculty age structure and its academic implications: The abnormal faculty age distribution which has resulted from the dramatic increase in staffing in the 1960s and early 1970s has meant that with currently relatively few retirements, there are few openings for the present generation of young scholars and teachers. The presence of an appreciable number of talented new faculty would enhance instructional quality and adaptability and also assist in building up desired centers of strength in key developing fields of research and instructions, (p. 21) The small number of recent tenure-stream appointments has indeed led to an under-representation of certain age groups and to the potential loss of a generation of scholars. The analyses by the Commission on Canadian Studies and the two granting councils are however, based on the somewhat unrealistic assumption that the age-structure of the present professoriate can be mechanically projected five to ten years hence without accounting for intervening variables such as outward and inward mobility, which rejuvenates the faculty age structure, and the future uncertainty of faculty retirement age. In fact, most Canadian reports have suggested a sudden loss of university faculty when a large part of today's age pyramid reaches the mandatory retirement age of 65. But current evidence indicates a more gradual retirement pattern. The Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms is likely to eliminate compulsory retirement at age 65, as four provinces and the federal government have already done. At the same time, early retirement, work-sharing, faculty renewal and other incentive schemes have made the labour market for university teachers more flexible and dynamic. The magnitude of pension benefit schemes will also have an effect on the faculty's willingness to retire, as will inflation and the tax structure. The transition between employment and retirement in the 1990s will, therefore, differ greatly from the static assumptions made about it. The above-mentioned factors make any retirement projections exceedingly difficult and complicate the prediction of demand for university teachers. In recent years, over 2,000 new university appointments have been made each year, representing an annual turnover of about 7 per cent. Half of these new appointments were inter-university transfers, both within Canada and from abroad; others were temporary or term replacements and the remainder were in the tenure stream. The majority (about 80%) of the appointees were at the junior ranks. As a result, university faculty are not aging uniformly; the age structure is constantly being revitalized. Another characteristic of the new entrants is that only two-thirds of them held a doctorate at the time of their appointment. While most of them may eventually TABLE 1 DOCTORAL DEGREES BY D I S C I P L I N E AND BY F I E L D OF STUDY, F I N E AND A P P L I E D ARTS Classics EnglIsh French O t h e r Modern L a n g u a g e s History Linguistics Ph1losophy Religious Studies HUMANITIES Archaeology Anthropology Area S t u d i e s Management & A d m i n . S t u d i e s Environmental Studies Economics Geography Law Pol I t leal S c i e n c e Psychology S o c i a l Work Sociology SUB-TOTAL S O C I A L SCIENCES TOTAL HUMAN S C I E N C E S 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 78 EDUCATION SUB-TOTAL 1970 TO 1984 1970 D I s c 1 p t 1 n e and F i e l d of Study 77 109 122 128 172 157 173 157 193 205 203 213 189 206 7 5 II 3 6 6 5 4 3 50 15 22 29 4 15 23 2 51 14 25 37 5 32 14 16 48 20 17 49 4 31 22 7 64 21 23 35 8 44 35 7 66 25 42 47 6 50 25 161 180 207 237 268 1 6 15 4 2 25 18 15 9 1 19 1 12 1 4 15 7 3 29 22 10 8 109 1 15 4 10 12 1 1 4 39 25 4 18 121 6 23 153 227 224 395 490 546 1 5 9 - 1 14 14 3 7 86 2 1 1 . 7 1 1 9 7 12 12 13 10 79 19 33 55 12 33 18 3 67 34 35 52 7 35 29 7 74 18 37 48 12 48 26 1 1 82 27 29 54 1 1 56 17 10 63 16 32 39 10 41 26 10 87 34 32 39 16 40 24 5 54 18 33 42 14 41 21 3 64 14 33 40 13 58 20 1 68 25 41 42 2 41 21 286 259 262 270 287 237 282 228 245 241 6 15 27 10 3 39 31 4 19 133 1 31 1 9 12 19 2 52 39 7 20 148 7 41 2 22 21 12 3 77 28 9 19 153 5 46 1 15 13 10 4 54 30 5 25 142 8 43 3 24 10 19 4 60 31 4 26 169 4 57 - 23 19 18 3 60 28 6 30 154 3 51 2 19 6 16 6 62 24 3 19 184 3 58 5 19 17 23 5 61 29 8 27 185 6 41 8 17 17 19 9 57 26 3 21 152 4 45 1 21 15 23 3 51 26 18 22 155 6 44 3 25 3 22 7 57 30 7 34 169 4 48 277 319 357 397 350 411 395 402 426 378 385 409 641 719 822 818 796 845 886 853 918 831 831 869 7 79 27 32 61 1 1 44 25 TABLE 1 ( C o n t ' d ) DOCTORAL DEGREES BY D I S C I P L I N E AM) BY FIELD OF STUDY, 1970 TO 1984 210 220 221 247 237 26 60 55 26 52 219 1 1 26 31 62 22 38 179 9 34 34 52 27 54 201 13 32 31 53 29 30 175 6 35 35 50 32 54 206 12 28 32 49 35 43 187 7 224 230 188 214 181 218 194 5 99 3 18 125 2 89 7 36 134 0 127 3 7 137 1 105 4 3 1 13 1 135 10 5 151 4 128 1 1 12 155 2 150 15 3 170 1 17 23 47 75 88 19 133 31 53 60 95 12 1 10 17 46 47 88 10 145 25 42 46 63 13 135 18 38 61 78 1 1 120 21 46 50 62 13 139 20 37 48 82 14 151 26 41 54 85 10 379 369 384 318 334 341 317 340 367 998 868 904 972 906 869 888 87 3 960 968 1,820 1,686 1,700 1,817 1,792 1,722 1,806 1,701 51 29 78 18 3 12 48 240 236 197 228 239 224 51 60 82 52 45 290 9 51 52 87 43 62 295 6 46 41 55 32 46 220 6 36 19 61 25 38 179 8 34 33 58 38 34 197 5 34 36 60 36 52 218 6 262 299 301 226 187 202 4 94 7 13 1 18 1 1 16 15 25 157 2 1 12 5 34 153 1 81 7 33 122 2 79 2 22 105 1 76 6 22 105 241 12 44 74 130 20 221 23 46 74 132 21 225 21 41 89 150 24 200 32 30 69 129 1 1 167 28 34 64 108 13 155 24 48 51 91 10 521 517 550 471 414 46 37 64 42 36 225 9 54 58 74 36 37 259 3 191 234 0 65 4 18 87 1 68 2 22 93 Chemistry Computer S c l e n c e Geology Mathematles Physles Other P h y s i c a l S c i e n c e s SUB-TOTAL MATHEMATICS AND PHYSICAL S C I E N C E S 209 6 32 55 123 22 447 TOTAL SCIENCES 972 1971 55 40 64 33 1 12 42 49 77 76 30 3 7 44 247 286 37 32 46 35 34 184 7 1,367 49 31 97 15 5 8 42 50 25 82 21 4 12 34 277 GRAND TOTAL 45 31 81 9 1 12 42 39 23 73 16 3 7 36 276 Dental S t u d ( e s Medical S t u d i e s Pharmacy Other H e a l t h S c i e n c e s SUB-TOTAL HEALTH SCIENCE 52 28 70 21 12 6 31 39 32 76 27 1 5 56 49 24 64 28 6 9 60 Chem I ca I Eng I neer I ng C i v i l Engineering Electrical EngIneerlng Mechan tea I E n g I n e e r I g Other E n g I n e e r I n g S u b - t o t a I Eng f n e e r I n g Forestry SUB-TOTAL ENGINEERING AND A P P L I E D S C I E N C E S 1983 1978 60 50 80 27 2 7 51 AgrIculture Bfochemfstry 4 B i o p h y s i c s Bfotogy Botany H o u s e h o I d Se Ience Veterinary Medicine Zoology SUB-TOTAL AGRICULTURE 4 BIOLOGICAL S C I E N C E S 1982 1977 1974 1970 1972 51 48 92 25 1 1 1 48 1 ,134 1 ,173 1,283 1 ,165 1,624 1,7)9 1,924 1,884 1984 1981 1979 1976 1973 D i s c I p i I n e and F i e l t o f Study 1975 49 14 87 1 1 3 1 1 49 1980 49 27 77 1 1 6 7 33 55 38 81 1 1 9 9 34 1,791 1,837 C a. 18 M a x von Z u r - M u e h l e n complete their doctoral degrees, this feature implies a certain flexibility in the labour market for university faculty. All these factors contribute to a situation where the size of the replacement demand for university teachers is of neither the scale nor time frame suggested. Such uncertain demand considerations, however, must be related to future supply. The Projected Supply of University Teachers Most significant among faculty supply considerations are recent changes in full-time doctoral enrolment and in the subsequent anticipated supply of doctoral graduates from Canadian universities. During the last 10 years (1975 to 1984), an average of 1,750 doctorates were earned annually, 10 to 20 per cent of them by international (foreign) students (Table 1). At the same time, a sizable group of Canadian citizens and permanent residents is obtaining doctoral qualifications in other countries and then returning to Canada. (The National Research Council in the United States reported 327 doctoral recipients with Canadian citizenship or permanent resident status for 1983-84). The result has been that each year, a total of over 1,500 new doctoral degree holders (excluding international students, but including doctoral degree recipients returning from abroad) were potentially available to the labour market. Assuming that half of them would have liked to enter university teaching, as the pattern of the early 1980s suggests, 750 will be available each year between 1986 and 1990 (Table 2). Recent studies have suggested that doctoral enrolment may be a function of employment opportunities for bachelor's degree-holders. This, however, seems to contradict the stable relationship between total university and doctoral enrolment which has been evident over the last decade. Another relationship which seems unlikely, for a variety of reasons, is the one between faculty supply/demand considerations and price elasticities. Moreover, salary structures, on a discipline basis, are not so much influenced by supply/demand factors as they are subject to the collective agreements in many universities which make salary differentiations difficult. The simulation exercise in Table 2 is derived from 1985-86 data on full- and part-time doctoral enrolment of Canadian citizens and permanent residents. Based on past cohort analysis, the withdrawal rate and length of study were calculated, taking into account variations for each discipline by predicting the average annual number of doctoral degrees to be awarded during the five-year period between 1986 and 1990. Although this simulation extends only to 1990, indications from 1986-87 data are that the annual number of doctoral degrees awarded in Canada will actually increase. This is supported by the fact that full-time doctoral enrolment of Canadian citizens and permanent residents increased 27% from 7,400 in 1981-82 to 9,400 in 1985-86 (Table 3) and by Statistics Canada's estimates, in Advance Statistics on Education 1986-87, that there will be 2,070 doctoral graduates in 1986 - substantially above the annual average for the last decade. In the early 19 Myths and Realities: T h e Fallacy of Faculty Shortages in the Next D e c a d e nineties, the supply of doctoral degree-holders is likely to be at least as high as that of the period from 1986 to 1990. This prediction is supported by a second projection exercise, which extends the time horizon to a ten-year period from the mid-eighties to the mid-nineties. The relationship between total and doctoral full-time university enrolment is a stable one, as is the relationship between Master's and Doctoral degrees. During the last decade, doctoral students have consistently represented just over 2 per cent of total full-time university enrolment. Since total full-time enrolment is at an all-time high (estimated at 440,000 in 1986-87, excluding international students), continued growth of doctoral enrolment, and consequently the supply of doctoral graduates, can be predicted over the next decade. It takes about ten years from first-year enrolment to doctoral completion (including post-doctoral studies), so the potential supply of new university teachers can be projected with reasonable certainty to 1995. Another feature of present graduate enrolment is that the age distribution of doctoral students has shifted toward the older ages. This reflects the fact that more students are temporarily postponing graduate studies in order to gain experience or earn money; as a result, the time horizon for entry into the labour market as potential faculty is extended two or three years for students presently at the undergraduate level. There are other aspects of the supply side that need to be considered. Since tenured positions have been limited in recent years, many doctoral graduates have entered "holding patterns". These include term and sessional appointments, and programs such as NSERC's University Research Fellowships and the SSHRC's new Canada Research Fellowships. These two programs also strengthen the research capacity of Canadian universities and in this sense serve a dual function. Provincial faculty renewal funding programs, such as those in Ontario and British Columbia, are another resource which have become popular as a means of rejuvenating faculty. Another holding pattern is the increased number of female doctoral graduates, many of whom have not secured university employment. During the 1970s and early 1980s, the proportion of women among doctoral degree recipients increased from fewer than 1 in 10 to 1 in 4, but proportionately fewer of them have been employed in universities. Only 16 per cent of full-time university teachers are women, and they tend to be concentrated in disciplines such as Education, Modern Languages and Literature, Nursing, and other Health Sciences. Moreover, out of necessity, many recent doctoral graduates have entered other employment sectors, but still consider a university career their first choice and might, in the future, accept a university position. These circumstances have created a reserve army of potential academics who could be activated when the need arises and when financial resources are available. Some of them may no longer be suited for a career shift to university employment, but on the other hand many of them have gained valuable experience in the private and public sectors. I TABLE Projected supply of doctoral N J O 1 degrees tor Canadian c i t i z e n s and permanent r e s i d o n t s for by d i s c i p l i n e , 1986 t o 1990 Degrees Ful 1-tIme granted doctora 1 each year enroIment 1986 to 1990 Fu 11 - and p a r t - t 1 me doctora 1 enrolment wlthdrawa1 rate in percent 1,779 50 890 5 178 78 45 123 50 50 50 39 23 62 5 5 5 8 5 13 C 1 ass 1cs EnglIsh French Other languages Hi s t o r y L 1 ngu 1 St i cs Ph i 1osophy Re 11gi ous stud 1es SUB-TOTAL HIMAN1T1ES 45 481 257 295 466 148 353 280 2,370 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 23 241 129 148 233 74 177 140 1, 185 5 5 5 5 6 5 4 6 4 to 6 5 48 26 30 39 15 44 23 230 Anthropology and archaeology Area s t u d i e s Management and a d m i n i s t r a t i v e stud i es Economi cs Geography Law' Environmental s t u d i e s P o l I t l c a l science Psychology S o c i a l work Sociology SUB-TOTAL SOCIAL SCIENCES 234 64 259 278 166 52 35 325 1 ,283 51 4 36 3, 184 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 117 32 130 139 83 26 18 163 642 26 218 1,592 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 7 4.5 5 5 4-5 to 7 TOTAL HUMAN SCIENCES 7,456 50 3,728 4 to 7 Discipline and Field of Study EDUCATION Musi c Fine and performing a r t s SUB-TOTAL FINE ANO PERFORMING ARTS Source: Statistics Canada and estimates by Ba1 ance the Length ot study author. f u l l - and p a r t - t i m e s t u d y . Wlthdrawa1 rate 1n percent Ba1 ance Length of study Degrees granted each year 1986 to 1990 50 510 5 102 50 50 50 28 20 48 5 5 5 6 4 10 37 406 161 242 351 102 227 199 1,785 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 19 203 91 121 176 51 1 14 100 893 5 5 5 5 6 5 4 6 4 to 6 4 41 18 24 29 10 29 17 172 23 6 26 28 17 5 4 23 143 5 44 324 192 40 202 207 125 39 25 237 1,002 30 294 2,394 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 96 20 101 104 63 20 13 119 501 15 147 1, 197 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 7 4.5 5 5 4.5 t o 7 19 4 20 21 13 4 3 17 111 3 29 244 745 5,294 50 2,647 4 to 7 528 1,020 56 39 95. TABLE 2 ( C o n t ' d ) Projected supply of doctoral degrees for Canadian c i t i z e n s and permanent r e s i d e n t s from f u l l - and p a r t - t i m e s t u d y , by d i s c i p l i n e , 1986 t o 1990 Fu 11 - and part-t1 me doctora1 enro1 ment Agr i c u I T u r e B i o c h e m i s t r y and b i o p h y s i c s BI ol ogy Botany Household s c i e n c e V e t e r i n a r y medicine Zoology SUB-TOTAL AGRICULTURE S AND BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES Withdrawal rate In percent 302 136 445 63 55 53 172 1,226 D i s c i p l i n e and Field of Study 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 181 82 267 38 33 32 103 736 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 45 21 67 10 8 8 26 184 252 128 398 60 46 46 151 1,081 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 151 77 239 36 28 28 91 649 Ba ance Length of study Degrees Fu1l-tlme granted doctora1 each year enrolment 1986 to 1990 Withdrawal rate 1n percent Length of study Degrees granted each year 1986 to 1990 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 38 19 60 9 7 7 23 162 57 70 1 1 1 54 103 31 427 4 5 4 4 4 5 4-5 14 14 28 14 26 6 102 Ba ance Chemical e n g i n e e r i n g C i v i l eng1neer1ng Electrical engineering Mechanical e n g i n e e r i n g Other e n g i n e e r i n g Forestry SUB-TOTAL ENGINEERING S APPLIED SCIENCES 1 16 162 253 135 239 69 970 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 64 89 139 72 131 38 533 4 5 4 4 4 5 4-5 16 18 35 18 33 8 128 103 128 202 98 188 57 776 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 Dental s t u d i e s Medical and other health s t u d i e s Pharmacy SUB-TOTAL HEALTH SCIENCES 10 814 1 12 936 35 40 35 35-45 6 488 73 567 3 4 4 3-4 2 122 >8 142 9 682 96 787 35 40 35 35-45 6 409 62 477 3 4 4 3-4 2 102 16 120 Chemlstry Computer s c i e n c e Geo 1ogy Mathemat i cs Physics Other p h y s i c a l s c i e n c e s SUB-TOTAL MATHEMATICS S PHYSICAL SCIENCES 528 169 210 228 354 128 1 ,617 45 40 35 45 35 35 35-45 290 101 136 125 230 83 965 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 73 25 34 31 58 21 241 491 132 158 184 317 1 10 1,392 45 40 35 45 35 35 35-45 270 79 103 101 206 71 830 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 63 20 26 25 52 18 208 TOTAL SCIENCES 4,749 35-45 2 801 3 to 5 695 4,036 35-45 2 ,383 3 to 5 592 12,401 35-50 6 637 3 to 7 1,464 9,463 35-50 5 ,103 3 to 7 1,136 24 133 GRAND TOTAL - ALL D I S C I P L I N E S Other not Source Identifed 196 disciplines Statistics Canada and 45 estimates 108 by the 4.5 author. 45 73 4.5 16 O 3. 22 Max von Z u r - M u e h l e n TABLE 3 Full-time university Academ ic graduate 2 72,627 (90.3) 280, 91 5 (90.3) 293,098 (90.4) 31 1,1 71 (90.4) 1976-77 315,784 (90.6) 31 3 , 5 4 4 (90.4) 1978-79 307,118 (90.0) 310,722 (89.9) 318,954 (89.7) 332,592 (89.7) 352,062 (89.6) 1 983-84 373,092 (89.5) 383,388 (89.4) 1 985-86P 392 , 051 (89.6) Note: Excludes International Source: Statistics of s t u d y , Other Undei— year s t u d e n t s by l e v e l 1972 - 7 3 t o Sub-total graduate 1 7,080 (5.6) 17,897 (5.8) 1 8,795 (5.8) 20,516 (5.9) 20,683 (5.9) 20,783 (6.0) 21,207 (6.2) 21,446 (6.2) 22,372 (6.3) 23,653 (6.4) 25,346 (6.5) 27, 574 (6.6) 28,320 (6.6) 28,451 (6.5) 7,263 (2.4) 6,97 9 (2.2) 6,934 (2.2) 6,907 (2.0) 6,871 (2.0) 6, 83 3 (2.0) 6, 808 (2.0) 7,032 (2. 1 ) 7,1 90 (2.0) 7,378 (2.0) 7, 861 (2.0) 8 , 5 71 (2.1 ) 9, 312 (2.2) 9,368 (2.1 ) (foreign) students. Canada. 1985-86 graduate 4, 996 2 9, 339 (1.7) 5, 341 (1.7) 5,219 (1 . 6 ) 5,81 2 (1.7) 5,326 (1.5) 5,588 (1.6) 6,156 (1.8) 6.327 ( 1 .8) 6,916 (2.0) 7,132 (1.9) 7,4 54 (1.9) 7 , 565 (1.8) 7,654 (1 . 8 ) 7,702 (1.8) (9.7) 30,217 (9.7) 30,948 (9.6) 33,235 (9.6) 32,880 (9.4) 33,204 (9.6) 34,171 (10.0) 301,966 (1 00.0) 311 ,1 32 (100.0) 324,046 (1 00.0) 344,406 (100.0) 348,664 (100.0) 346, 748 (100.0) 341,2B9 (1 0 0 . 0 ) 34 , 805 345,52 7 36,478 355,432 (10.1 ) (1 0 . 3 ) 38,163 (10.3) 40,661 (1 0 . 4 ) 43,710 (10.5) 45,286 (10.6) 45,521 (10.4) (100.0) (1 00.0) 370, 75 5 (100.0) 3 9 2 , 723 (1 0 0 . 0 ) 416,802 (100.0) 428,6 7 4 (100.0) 437,572 (100.0) Myths and Realities: T h e Fallacy of Faculty Shortages 23 in the Next D e c a d e The university environment of the 1990s will differ substantially from that of the past and present in a variety of respects. In the last two decades, Canadian universities have greatly developed their graduate programs. These programs are achieving maturity in the 1980s, and will enable Canadian universities to respond to demands for highly qualified manpower much more readily and expeditiously than in the sixties and early seventies when the infrastructure did not exist. The anticipated adequacy of supply is fortuitous, because it is unlikely that other industrial countries, particularly the United States, will have a surplus of university teachers as their own universities experience a strong replacement demand. An international shortage of university teachers already exists in a number of key areas such as management and the technology-intensive fields, as well as in some applied disciplines of the humanities and social sciences. The Future Demand for and Supply of University Teachers In re-interpreting the demand and supply factors for university teachers for the next ten years, an overall picture very different from the one suggested by the two granting councils and the Commission on Canadian Studies is emerging. These reports, which reflected the perceptions of the early eighties, were based on assumptions that were cumulatively biased on both the supply and demand sides, thereby compounding the possibility of error and creating the scenario of a future imbalance. This led to dramatic assertions that Canada would face a severe shortage of university teachers in the 1990s. Table 4 shows calculations of doctoral supply and demand relating to university teachers, 1986 to 1990, and considers retirement and mortality patterns for the same period. This table indicates, on a discipline basis, the anticipated surplus or deficit without considering the demand due to growth or to possible quality improvements. These calculations also do not take into account international students with doctoral qualifications, visiting scholars who stay on in Canada and eventually become permanent residents, nor future immigrants. Such variables contribute further to the supply data. Annual replacement demand (retirement and mortality), derived from the present age structure, would be 500 to 600 annually. Only two-thirds (i.e., 330 to 400) of the entry positions likely to be open will require doctoral qualifications. This figure can be compared with the predicted supply of 1,500 doctoral degrees (including returning Canadians) awarded each year. As suggested earlier, a minimum of half of them (750) would be available for university teaching. Therefore, the supply-demand ratio is two to one. Thus, while current literature presumed a somewhat reversed ratio, and consequently a dangerous faculty shortage, the available evidence refutes the suggestion of an imminent faculty supply crisis in the 1990s. Even if some of the premises are modified, on both the supply and demand sides, this outcome would not be dramatically affected. Only under radically different assumptions, such as exceptionally strong growth in the Canadian economy, a substantial increase in research and development expenditures, or a massive injection of financial resources to reduce the student-faculty TABLE 1 ESTIMATED SUPPLY OF DOCTORAL DEGREES FOR UNIVERSITY TEACHING REI.ATED TO THE REPI.ACEMENT DEMAND, 1986 TO 1 9 9 0 SELECTED D I S C I P L I N E DOCTORAL DEGREES AWARDED TO CANADIANS IN CANADA AVAII.ABLE FOR UNIVERSITY TEACHING PERCENTAGE NUMBi CANADIANS RECEIVING DOCTORAL DEGREES ABROAD AND RETURNING TO CANADA TOTAL SUPPLY ANTICIPATED NUMBER OF RETIREMENTS MORTALITY (0.5%) SUB-TOTAL DEMAND PERCENTAGE REQUIRED WITH A DOCTORAL DEGREE TOTAL DEMAND AVERAGE ANNUAL SURPLUS EDUCATION 102 MIJSIC 6 CUSSICS 4 HISTORY 29 MODERN AND MEDIAEVAL IJ\NGUAGES AND L ITERATIVE 83 29 PHILOSOPHY RELIGIOUS STUDIES 17 ANTHROPOLOGY AND ARCHAEOLOGY 19 AREA STUDIES 4 MANAGEMENT AND 20 ADMINISTRATIVE STUDIES ECONOMICS 21 13 GEOGRAPHY I .AW 4 10 LINGUISTICS 3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES 17 POLITICAL SCIENCE PSYCHOLOGY 111 SOCIAL WORK 3 29 SOCIOLOGY ' 38 AGRICULTURE 19 BIOCHEMISTRY BIOLOGY 60 BOTANY 9 7 HOUSEHOLD SCIENCE 7 VETERINARY SCIENCE 23 ZOOLOGY ENGINEERING INCLUDING 96 ENGINEERING SCIENCE 6 FORESTRY 2 DENTISTRY 16 PHARMACY 25 MATHEMATICS AND STATISTICS 63 CHEMISTRY 26 GEOLOGY PHYSICS 52 38.4 100.0 100.0 58.0 39 6 4 37 lb 2 2 8 54 8 6 25 50 6 4 17 16 3 1 5 66 9 5 22 75.0 35.2 76.5 87.7 50 3 4 19 4 5 2 6 71.9 64.0 76.2 60.0 51.2 60 19 13 11 2 10 5 1 0 3 70 24 14 11 5 48 9 ? 5 2 14 3 3 2 1 62 12 10 7 3 72.fi 81.9 74.5 88.3 69.1 45 10 7 6 2 25 14 7 5 3 88.1 56.o 62.5 85.7 68.2 58..3 70.5 32.3 81.8 64.7 37.0 42.9 32.7 56.6 50.0 30.0 34.9 18 12 8 3 7 2 12 36 2 19 14 8 20 5 4 2 8 10 3 2 1 0 b lb 1 5 6 0 5 8 0 3 8 27 22 11 5 8 2 17 53 3 24 20 8 25 13 4 5 16 17 14 1 4 0 4 10 11 7 10 8 1 7 2 4 2 2 10 6 3 3 1 1 4 7 2 4 2 1 4 1 1 1 1 27 20 10 7 1 5 14 18 9 14 10 2 11 3 5 3 3 48.8 75.8 84. 1 14.1 79.8 60.3 79.4 90.1 41.0 81.6 82.2 96.5 87.0 89.2 53.8 48.0 94.2 13 15 8 1 1 3 11 16 4 11 8 2 10 3 3 1 3 14 7 3 4 7 -I 6 35 -1 13 12 6 15 10 1 4 13 30.6 33.3 48.2 48.2 72.2 28.3 27.0 35.3 29 2 1 8 IB 18 7 18 14 1 1 2 12 10 a 13 43 3 2 10 30 28 15 31 30 4 6 2 15 8 4 17 11 0 2 1 10 5 2 5 41 4 8 3 25 13 6 22 73.4 64.2 23.0 72.9 80. 1 91.0 92.8 91.4 30 3 2 2 20 12 6 20 13 0 0 8 10 16 9 11 SUB-TOTAL 973 46.5 4 52 1/9 631 354 137 491 72.1 354 277 OTHER D I S C I P L I N E S 163 46.9 lb 118 65 29 94 42.4 40 78 1 ,: 1 3 6 46. 5 52tt >49 4)9 166 585 67.4 394 355 GRAND TOTAL Source: Derived from Table 2 and e s t i m a t e s by t h e author. 11\ Myths and Realities: T h e Fallacy of Faculty Shortages 25 in the Next D e c a d e ratio, might there be a shortage of university faculty with doctoral qualifications. These possibilities seem very remote. The overall analysis presented here, which covers well over 50 disciplines, has to be modified for specific disciplines in which enrolment might decline and replacement positions might not be filled, and for those which might grow such as management or computer science. If demand due to growth persists, the doctoral supply may be inadequate for these disciplines. Thus, for each of the over 50 disciplines, a different supply-demand profile emerges. Since substitution between disciplines is limited, demand and supply for each one must be addressed separately, but the overall picture is not changed. Invariably, most disciplines will have substantial surpluses of potential university teachers. The majority of doctoral degree holders will, however, have alternate employment opportunities. It is always tempting to speculate on the future, even without an adequate information base, since one is unlikely to be held accountable. The popular assumption of impending severe faculty shortages appears to be a reflection of this syndrome and seems to have been accepted as a truism. However, this is not only unfair to potential doctoral students who might be considering university teaching as a career, but also poses the danger of a misallocation of scarce resources. The argument in favour of additional resources for doctoral training should not be based on projected shortages of highly qualified manpower in the next decade. CONCLUSION Recent predictions of another staffing crisis in Canadian universities in the 1990s appear to be myths. Of course, individual disciplines may experience shortages; some, such as business or electrical engineering, do today. It is exceedingly difficult to achieve a perfect balance in the employment market for university teachers, since student choices, financial support for students, budgetary constraints, and incentive programs influence both supply and demand. A long lead time is necessary to complete a doctoral degree, whereas the labour market demand changes rapidly. Also, university appointments often require very specific qualifications and work experience. It may still be necessary for Canada to rely on the international labour market for certain specialized talent. Nonetheless, the apparent adequate supply of doctoral degree holders for the next ten years resolves some uncertainties for the universities and the government, and is welcome news. REFERENCES The C o m m i s s i o n on the Future D e v e l o p m e n t of the Universities of O n t a r i o ( B o v e y C o m m i s s i o n ) , Ontario Universities: Options and Futures (Toronto: D e c e m b e r 1984). Natural Sciences and E n g i n e e r i n g Research C o u n c i l . Completing Five-Year Plan for the Programs of the Natural Sciences the Bridge to the 90's. and Engineering A Research Second Council (Ottawa: N S E R C , J u n e 1985). Social Sciences and H u m a n i t i e s R e s e a r c h C o u n c i l , C a n a d a . Five-Year the Social Sciences and Humanities. 1985-1990 Symons, T . H . B. and P a g e , J. E. Some Questions and Canadian Studies Plan for Financing Research in (Ottawa: S S H R C , 1985). of Balance: Human Resoures, Higher Education (Ottawa: Association of Universities and Colleges of C a n a d a , 1984).